Ferguson Enterprises Inc.

NYSE:FERG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$43.0b

Ferguson Enterprises Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Ferguson Enterprises is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 8.2% and 6.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 9.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 32.9% in 3 years.

Key information

8.2%

Earnings growth rate

9.45%

EPS growth rate

Trade Distributors earnings growth14.4%
Revenue growth rate6.1%
Future return on equity32.88%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated20 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Apr 28

FERG: Large Project Exposure And Buybacks Will Support Measured Medium Term Progress

Analysts made a modest upward adjustment to the consolidated price target for Ferguson Enterprises, reflecting slightly higher fair value around $276, small tweaks to growth and margin assumptions, and fresh research pointing to ongoing support from non residential exposure, large project work, and updated medium term targets following the recent Q4 update and hybrid analyst day. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Ferguson Enterprises centers on refreshed price targets following the latest Q4 results, the hybrid analyst day, and updated medium term growth and margin targets.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 15

Ferguson: More Appreciative Of A Long-Term Growth Story

Summary Ferguson Enterprises demonstrates robust long-term growth, driven by organic expansion, strategic M&A, and disciplined capital allocation. Ferguson reported 2025 revenues up 5% to $31.3B and adjusted EPS up 13% to $10.58, with operating margins nearing 10%. 2026 outlook calls for low-to-mid single-digit sales growth and flattish margins, reflecting macro headwinds but continued megatrend tailwinds. Ferguson trades at a premium (24x trailing earnings); shares are fairly valued, but I would buy on dips into the lower $200s. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 14

FERG: Large Project Exposure And Buybacks Will Support Balanced Medium Term Outlook

The updated analyst price target for Ferguson Enterprises edges lower to about $276 from roughly $277, as analysts fine-tune their models around slightly higher discount rates, modestly adjusted revenue growth assumptions, and ongoing support from recent Q4-driven target revisions across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research signals a mix of optimism and caution around Ferguson Enterprises, with most Street models adjusting to Q4 results, updated medium term targets, and evolving project pipelines.
Narrative Update • Mar 31

FERG: Large Project Exposure And Buybacks Will Support Medium Term Upside

Ferguson Enterprises' updated analyst price target edges higher to $277.18 from $276.55, as analysts factor in slightly lower discount rates, modestly adjusted revenue growth assumptions, a small uptick in profit margin expectations, and a higher future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a cluster of higher price targets for Ferguson Enterprises, with analysts reacting to Q4 results, updated medium term targets, and the company’s role in large capital projects.
Narrative Update • Mar 17

FERG: Large Project Exposure And Capital Returns Will Drive Medium Term Upside

Analysts have lifted their average price targets on Ferguson into a roughly $252 to $300 range, citing Q4 results, medium term growth and margin targets, and the company's positioning in non residential and large project markets as key supports for the updated outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a broadly constructive stance on Ferguson, with price targets clustered in the low to high $200s and a few reaching $300, as analysts refresh models following the latest Q4 report and management's medium term framework.
Narrative Update • Mar 03

FERG: Large Projects And Capital Returns Will Shape Medium Term Risk Reward

Analysts have lifted their consolidated price target on Ferguson from about $261 to roughly $277, citing stronger modeled revenue growth, continued support from large non-residential projects, and updated post Q4 assumptions that include a slightly higher future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show a cluster of higher price targets for Ferguson, with most analysts reacting to Q4 results, the non residential exposure, and management’s medium term guidance.
Narrative Update • Feb 17

FERG: Buybacks And Dividend Policy Will Support Distribution Exposure And Housing Risk

Analysts have nudged their average price targets for Ferguson higher, with recent upward revisions such as $243 to $247 supporting a slightly stronger outlook that leans on distribution exposure and relatively more attractive valuation assumptions, even as they continue to flag housing affordability, policy shifts, and sector volatility as key risks. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts are lifting their price targets in both US$ and £ terms, which signals that they see room for the shares to better reflect Ferguson's current valuation assumptions.
Narrative Update • Feb 02

FERG: Buybacks And Dividend Policy Will Counter Housing And Policy Uncertainty

Analysts have inched their price targets for Ferguson higher, with recent moves such as RBC Capital lifting its target to US$247 from US$243 and Morgan Stanley increasing its view to £201.00 from £193.00. These revisions reflect updated assumptions on discount rates, profit margins, and future P/E levels.
Analysis Article • Jan 23

Does Ferguson Enterprises (NYSE:FERG) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Narrative Update • Jan 19

FERG: Buybacks And Dividends Will Offset Housing And Nonresidential Market Uncertainty

Analysts have inched their price targets on Ferguson higher, with recent US$11 and £800 increases supported by updated views on fair value, modestly adjusted discount rates, revenue growth assumptions, profit margins, and future P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Ferguson Enterprises highlights a mix of optimism on execution and valuation, balanced against caution on housing and broader macro risks.
Analysis Article • Jan 06

Should You Think About Buying Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (NYSE:FERG) Now?

Today we're going to take a look at the well-established Ferguson Enterprises Inc. ( NYSE:FERG ). The company's stock...
Narrative Update • Jan 05

FERG: Ongoing Buybacks And Dividend Increases Will Support Constructive Long Term Outlook

Analysts have slightly adjusted their price target for Ferguson Enterprises to approximately $259.77, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples. What's in the News From August 1, 2025 to October 31, 2025, Ferguson Enterprises repurchased 901,308 shares, or 0.46% of its share count, for a total of $208.75 million under its ongoing buyback program (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Dec 20

FERG: Future Dividend And Buybacks Will Support Constructive Long Term Outlook

Narrative Update Analysts have nudged their price target on Ferguson Enterprises slightly higher to approximately $260 per share from about $259.60, reflecting modestly higher long term valuation multiples that more than offset slightly softer assumptions for revenue growth and profit margins. What's in the News Raised quarterly dividend to $0.89 per share, a 7% increase year over year, payable February 27, 2026 to shareholders of record on January 2, 2026 (company dividend announcement) Completed a major share repurchase tranche, buying back 901,308 shares between August 1 and October 31, 2025 and totaling 27,680,792 shares, or 13.2% of shares, under the program launched September 28, 2021 (company buyback update) Updated 2025 guidance to target approximately 5% net sales growth, refining prior calendar 2025 outlook of mid single digit growth (company guidance revision) Valuation Changes Fair Value: edged higher from approximately $259.59 to about $259.91 per share, reflecting a minimal upward adjustment in intrinsic valuation.
Narrative Update • Dec 06

FERG: Future Cycle Turn And Share Gains Will Support Balanced Outlook

The fair value estimate for Ferguson Enterprises edges higher to approximately $260 per share from about $258, as analysts cite robust non residential driven organic growth, ongoing share gains across key end markets, and resilient margins despite pockets of residential and HVAC volatility. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts have broadly lifted their price targets following Ferguson's latest quarterly results, citing better than expected execution in challenging end markets and reinforcing confidence in the company’s long term growth algorithm.
Analysis Article • Nov 28

Under The Bonnet, Ferguson Enterprises' (NYSE:FERG) Returns Look Impressive

There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Firstly, we'll want to see a...
Narrative Update • Nov 22

FERG: Ongoing Share Gains And Market Stability Will Support Future Performance

Ferguson Enterprises' analyst price target has been raised modestly. Analysts cite strong organic growth in non-residential markets and ongoing share gains, which are offsetting headwinds in residential and HVAC sectors.
Narrative Update • Nov 07

FERG: Ongoing Share Gains And Sector Recovery Will Support Steady Performance

Ferguson Enterprises' analyst price target was modestly increased from $255.30 to $257.00, as analysts cited the company's strong organic growth, robust performance in non-residential markets, and continued share gains despite challenges in the residential and HVAC sectors. Analyst Commentary Following Ferguson Enterprises' latest quarterly results, a number of bullish analysts have raised their price targets, citing strong performance in key areas and ongoing share gains.
Narrative Update • Oct 24

Organic Share Gains And Non-Residential Strength Will Support Upside Momentum

Ferguson Enterprises' analyst price target has risen from $252.16 to $255.30, reflecting analysts' positive outlook on the company's strong Q4 performance, ongoing share gains, and resilience across end markets despite near-term industry headwinds. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates reflect a generally optimistic stance on Ferguson Enterprises, as analysts raise their price targets in response to the company’s strong quarterly results and proven ability to gain market share.
Narrative Update • Oct 10

HVAC And Waterworks Expansions Will Fuel Future Market Success

Ferguson Enterprises' analyst price target has been raised by approximately $2 to $252. Analysts cite strong Q4 results, share gains across key markets, and the company's resilience despite ongoing headwinds in residential segments.
Narrative Update • Sep 26

HVAC And Waterworks Expansions Will Fuel Future Market Success

Analysts have raised Ferguson Enterprises’ price target from $237.53 to $249.89, citing strong non-residential growth, consistent market share gains, and robust Q4 results that boost confidence in forward estimates and margin recovery despite ongoing residential sector headwinds. Analyst Commentary Strong organic growth led by robust performance in non-residential segments and positive pricing/inflation tailwinds, offsetting muted residential sector activity.
Narrative Update • Sep 11

HVAC And Waterworks Expansions Will Fuel Future Market Success

Analysts have raised their price target for Ferguson Enterprises to $237.53, reflecting confidence in stable margins, improved organic growth, supportive commodity pricing, and anticipated earnings benefits from U.S. tariffs. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite continued improvement in topline results, with Ferguson achieving 5% organic growth in Q3.
Analysis Article • Sep 10

Estimating The Fair Value Of Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (NYSE:FERG)

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Ferguson Enterprises fair value estimate is US$254 Current...
Narrative Update • Aug 27

HVAC And Waterworks Expansions Will Fuel Future Market Success

Ferguson Enterprises’ consensus price target saw a modest increase to $235.00 as analysts cited stabilizing prices, supportive commodity trends, early signs of end-market recovery, and potential tariff tailwinds, all underpinned by solid organic growth. Analyst Commentary Continued topline improvement, with 5% organic growth in Q3.
Analysis Article • Aug 03

What Does Ferguson Enterprises Inc.'s (NYSE:FERG) Share Price Indicate?

Let's talk about the popular Ferguson Enterprises Inc. ( NYSE:FERG ). The company's shares received a lot of attention...
Analysis Article • Jul 07

Under The Bonnet, Ferguson Enterprises' (NYSE:FERG) Returns Look Impressive

Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? In a perfect world...
Seeking Alpha • Mar 13

Ferguson: Construction Headwinds Limit Recovery Potential

Summary Ferguson Enterprises' stock has fallen 21% due to disappointing earnings and economic uncertainty, despite solid free cash flow and capital returns. The company faces margin pressure and subdued construction demand, impacting earnings and leading to lower guidance for operating margins and cap-ex. Ferguson remains cash generative with a strong balance sheet, continuing share buybacks, dividends, and potential for bolt-on acquisitions. Given macro uncertainty and slow recovery expectations, FERG shares are a hold, with a more compelling buy case at or below $150. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 13

Ferguson: Rating Downgrade On Uncertain Near-Term Margin Outlook

Summary Downgrade Ferguson to hold due to disappointing 1Q25 results, with sales in line, but margins significantly compressed by price deflation and rising SG&A costs. The residential demand outlook remains uncertain, with no positive signs from macro indicators like housing starts and existing home sales. FERG's near-term margin performance is at risk, with potential for further compression if revenue does not grow and SG&A costs remain high. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 05

Ferguson Enterprises Is Struggling To Grow

Summary Ferguson Enterprises showed strong growth up to July 2022 but has shown minimal growth in 2023 and 2024. Their competitors in industrial distribution also faced difficult trading conditions in 2023 but have grown their revenue in 2024. The share price of $197.06 and P/E (TTM) of 22.9 (10/31/24) are expensive for a company with no growth. At the current price, there are shares with better prospects. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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New Narrative • Sep 24

Calculated Expansion In Plumbing And HVAC, Alongside Smart Acquisitions, Fuels Market Leadership And Shareholder Gains

Strategic focus on plumbing and HVAC, alongside optimizing supply chain through automation, positions Ferguson for growth and improved operational efficiency.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:FERG - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202836,9082,4862,2532,82115
12/31/202734,5372,2842,1802,64324
12/31/202632,6922,0832,1682,38324
3/31/202631,0581,9551,4971,960N/A
12/31/202530,7991,8861,6182,062N/A
10/31/202531,1591,9561,6471,993N/A
7/31/202530,7621,8561,6031,908N/A
4/30/202530,2111,6071,3891,733N/A
1/31/202529,8981,6401,3571,695N/A
10/31/202429,6991,6861,3031,661N/A
7/31/202429,6351,7351,5011,873N/A
4/30/202429,5271,8682,0852,428N/A
1/31/202429,3591,7612,0242,415N/A
10/31/202329,5111,8132,3452,782N/A
7/31/202329,7341,8892,2822,723N/A
4/30/202329,8671,8871,8142,270N/A
1/31/202330,0112,0971,6812,091N/A
10/31/202229,6942,1591,3251,656N/A
7/31/202228,5662,0998591,149N/A
4/30/202227,1622,1821,0131,272N/A
1/31/202225,7942,0081,0401,277N/A
10/31/202124,2231,8499441,179N/A
7/31/202122,7921,6301,1411,382N/A
4/30/202121,2491,224N/AN/AN/A
1/31/202120,3561,1101,5441,808N/A
10/31/202020,3661,0621,5851,865N/A
7/31/202019,9409731,2621,545N/A
1/31/202021,056979N/A1,563N/A
10/31/201921,5331,020N/A1,427N/A
7/31/201919,7291,042N/A1,290N/A
4/30/201921,7911,001N/A1,093N/A
1/31/201921,572941N/A896N/A
10/31/201821,162891N/A966N/A
7/31/201820,752841N/A1,036N/A
4/30/201820,341967N/A1,026N/A
1/31/201819,9291,093N/A1,016N/A
10/31/201719,6071,073N/A983N/A
7/31/201719,2841,053N/A950N/A
4/30/201719,065846N/AN/AN/A
1/31/201716,613663N/A1,077N/A
10/31/201615,866617N/A1,007N/A
7/31/201616,663629N/A1,045N/A
1/31/201619,392813N/A1,054N/A
10/31/201520,877692N/A1,103N/A
7/31/201520,851502N/A1,070N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: FERG's forecast earnings growth (8.2% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: FERG's earnings (8.2% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: FERG's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: FERG's revenue (6.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: FERG's revenue (6.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: FERG's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (32.9%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/20 11:57
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/20 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. is covered by 41 analysts. 24 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David MantheyBaird
Paul Daniel CheckettsBarclays
Matthew BouleyBarclays