Revenue Downgrade: Here's What Analysts Forecast For Deere & Company (NYSE:DE)

Today is shaping up negative for Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic.

Following the downgrade, the consensus from 15 analysts covering Deere is for revenues of US$50b in 2024, implying an uneasy 19% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are anticipated to descend 11% to US$31.08 in the same period. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$55b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$32.81 in 2024. Indeed, we can see that analyst sentiment has declined measurably after the new consensus came out, with a measurable cut to revenue estimates and a minor downgrade to EPS estimates to boot.

View our latest analysis for Deere

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$430 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 19% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 10% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.7% per year. It's pretty clear that Deere's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for Deere. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Deere after today.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Deere analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.