Carrier Global (CARR): Assessing Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness

Carrier Global (CARR) shares have seen some movement recently, catching the attention of investors who follow the capital goods space. Over the past month, the stock has drifted lower. This has prompted renewed interest in how the company’s fundamentals are holding up.

See our latest analysis for Carrier Global.

Carrier Global’s share price has lost ground this year, with a 15.8% decline year-to-date and a one-year total shareholder return of -21.1%. Longer-term holders still enjoy solid gains over the past three and five years. The recent momentum reflects investors recalibrating expectations on growth potential and risk, especially after a series of softer price moves in recent months.

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With shares trading well below recent highs but analysts still seeing upside, it is worth asking whether Carrier Global is now undervalued or if the market has already factored in its future growth prospects. Is this a buying opportunity, or is everything priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 22.5% Undervalued

Carrier Global’s fair value estimate stands notably above its last close of $57.55, suggesting a meaningful potential upside. The narrative draws from forward-looking projections and expects the market to catch up to robust performance drivers already in motion.

Carrier's introduction of differentiated products, such as air-cooled commercial heat pumps and the integration of HEMS technology with Google Cloud's AI, positions them to capture the growing demand for sustainable and smart energy solutions. This could potentially drive future revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how the narrative justifies this big gap between price and value? The full narrative reveals the make-or-break growth drivers that could supercharge profits and the bold profit multiple used to reach that target. Click through to unlock what market assumptions could fuel this ambitious forecast.

Result: Fair Value of $74.29 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, risks remain, as softer residential demand and persistent execution challenges in key business segments could potentially undermine the company's growth outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Carrier Global narrative.

Build Your Own Carrier Global Narrative

Feel free to dive into the numbers yourself, test your own assumptions, and craft a fresh narrative for Carrier Global in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Carrier Global research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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