Boise Cascade (BCC): Assessing Valuation After a Steep Share Price Pullback

Boise Cascade (BCC) has been grinding through a tougher stretch this year, with the stock down sharply from its highs, and that slide now has value focused investors taking a closer look.

See our latest analysis for Boise Cascade.

Over the past year, that tougher housing and construction backdrop has weighed heavily, with a year to date share price return of minus 36.2 percent and a one year total shareholder return of minus 38.2 percent. Even so, the five year total shareholder return is still above 100 percent, suggesting long term holders remain meaningfully ahead despite fading recent momentum.

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With earnings still growing, the share price well below its peak and analysts seeing upside to their targets, investors now face a key question: Is Boise Cascade undervalued, or is the market already pricing in its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 17.2% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value sitting meaningfully above the last close of $74.77, Boise Cascade is being framed as a discounted mid cycle entry point.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $103.667 for Boise Cascade based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you would need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $7.0 billion, earnings will come to $285.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 15.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.3%.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of slow burning revenue climb, margin shift, and earnings multiple reset could justify that higher fair value? The full narrative lays out every assumption.

Result: Fair Value of $90.33 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, shrinking engineered wood volumes and heavy capital spending could squeeze margins and cash flow, challenging the idea that Boise Cascade is simply mispriced for cyclical reasons.

Find out about the key risks to this Boise Cascade narrative.

Build Your Own Boise Cascade Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can quickly build a custom view in under three minutes using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Boise Cascade research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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