ATI (ATI): A Fresh Look at Valuation Following CEO Leadership Changes and Strong Aerospace Momentum

ATI Inc. (ATI) caught investor attention following the recent announcement that CEO Kimberly A. Fields will become Board Chair next year. This move is designed to maintain momentum in its aerospace and defense focus.

See our latest analysis for ATI.

ATI's recent executive shuffle comes on the heels of an exceptional run for shareholders, with a 75% year-to-date share price return and a three-year total shareholder return above 240%. Leadership continuity appears to be reinforcing market confidence, as momentum is building in both ATI’s stock and its aerospace ambitions.

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With analyst sentiment on the rise and ATI’s stock trading well ahead of the industry, investors now face a crucial question: is there upside left, or is the market already pricing in years of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 18% Undervalued

ATI's latest close at $96.47 is outpaced by the narrative consensus fair value of $118.25. That gap ignites debate about the next move. Let's spotlight one of the key assumptions driving this viewpoint.

Recent long-term contract expansions with both Boeing and Airbus, including new titanium alloy sheet supply and broader product offerings, lock in higher volumes and minimums, expand ATI's share, and feature inflation pass-through and attractive pricing, directly supporting reliable, higher-margin revenue growth and a structurally improved earnings base through the decade.

Read the complete narrative.

What’s the secret math behind this bullish price target? Analysts are banking on margin expansion and volume growth, but there is a twist in the projections that will surprise even seasoned investors. Don’t miss the details driving this forecast. See what could really move the needle next.

Result: Fair Value of $118.25 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, challenges remain if key aerospace customers cut orders or if global supply chain pressures intensify. Either scenario could quickly dampen ATI’s bullish outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this ATI narrative.

Another View: Multiple-Based Valuation

While the consensus fair value points to ATI being undervalued, a look at price-to-earnings ratios offers a subtler story. ATI trades at 29.5x earnings, lower than the industry average of 36.1x and its peer average of 31.6x, but still above its estimated fair ratio of 32.4x. This suggests ATI is priced reasonably, with some cushion but not a deep discount. Does this difference make ATI less risky, or is it a sign that the market is catching up to the story?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out ATI for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 922 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own ATI Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can craft your own ATI view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your ATI research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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