Ameresco (AMRC): Valuation in Focus After Strong Q3 Results and New Clean Energy Contracts

Ameresco (AMRC) is capturing attention after its third-quarter 2025 earnings report showed strong revenue growth and confirmed its 2025 outlook. Investors are also eyeing newly announced clean energy contracts, including a project with the City of Chandler.

See our latest analysis for Ameresco.

Ameresco's upbeat third-quarter report and new clean energy wins, such as the Chandler project, have revived market optimism and are reflected in a sharp 25% jump in the share price over the past three months. Despite this momentum, total shareholder return remains well below its peaks. This reminds investors that while the near-term outlook has improved, the longer-term path has experienced some challenges.

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With Ameresco’s shares now trading well below analyst price targets, the question is whether there is untapped value on the table or if the market is already factoring in all of the company’s forward-looking growth prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: 23.7% Undervalued

Ameresco’s most widely followed narrative points to a fair value notably above the recent closing price of $31.44. This highlights a large disconnect between the company’s long-term growth drivers and how the market currently values its shares.

Expanded government incentives for clean energy and storage (including ITCs and the Inflation Reduction Act) have allowed Ameresco to monetize new projects more quickly and enhance project economics, improving both revenue predictability and net margins via increased operating leverage.

Read the complete narrative.

Ever wondered what is fueling this valuation gap? The secret lies in ambitious revenue expansion and profit margin forecasts, combined with confidence in sustained government tailwinds. The real story is all about how these bullish assumptions stack up. See which numbers are behind the optimism.

Result: Fair Value of $41.22 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent supply chain delays or shifts in government policy could quickly challenge the current optimism surrounding Ameresco’s growth and margin expectations.

Find out about the key risks to this Ameresco narrative.

Another View: What Multiples Tell Us

While our fair value estimate points to significant upside, the current price-to-earnings ratio is actually higher than the average for similar peers (26.4x vs. 19.4x). However, it remains well below our fair ratio of 49.2x. This gap could suggest a hidden opportunity, or it may reflect valuation risk that the market is already anticipating.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Ameresco Narrative

If you want to challenge these numbers or dig deeper into the fundamentals, you can easily build your own perspective in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Ameresco research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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