Earnings Release: Here's Why Analysts Cut Their Amprius Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:AMPX) Price Target To US$7.17

Shareholders might have noticed that Amprius Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:AMPX) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.5% to US$1.06 in the past week. Revenues came in 32% better than analyst models expected, at US$3.3m, although statutory losses ballooned 23% to US$0.13, which is much worse than what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Amprius Technologies

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Amprius Technologies from seven analysts is for revenues of US$14.2m in 2024. If met, it would imply a decent 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$0.50 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$13.4m and losses of US$0.42 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Amprius Technologies even after this update; although they upped their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a notable increase in per-share losses.

It will come as no surprise that expanding losses caused the consensus price target to fall 27% to US$7.17with the analysts implicitly ranking ongoing losses as a greater concern than growing revenues. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Amprius Technologies at US$14.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$4.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Amprius Technologies' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 31% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 217% over the past year. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.0% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Amprius Technologies is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Amprius Technologies' future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Amprius Technologies going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 5 warning signs for Amprius Technologies (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to be mindful of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.