A Fresh Look at Amprius Technologies (AMPX) Valuation Following UAV Battery Deal With ESAero

Amprius Technologies (AMPX) revealed that Empirical Systems Aerospace has selected its SiCore SA08 cell for use in unmanned aerial vehicle battery packs. This move highlights the growing adoption of Amprius’s batteries across defense, logistics, and public safety sectors.

See our latest analysis for Amprius Technologies.

Shares of Amprius Technologies have surged recently, with a 30-day share price return of 15.55% and an impressive 341.61% year-to-date share price return, fueled by rapid adoption of its battery technology. Momentum is clearly building, as the one-year total shareholder return stands at a striking 808.63%. This reflects growing confidence in the company's growth prospects. While there was a slight dip in the last week, the longer-term trajectory has been powerfully positive.

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With such remarkable share price gains and rapid revenue growth, the key question now is whether Amprius remains undervalued or if recent momentum means the market has already priced in these expectations. Could there still be a buying opportunity?

Most Popular Narrative: 13.9% Undervalued

With a narrative fair value of $14.67 versus the last closing price of $12.63, the latest narrative points to notable upside, driven by powerful business shifts and investor optimism.

Diversification of the customer and geographic revenue base through global contract manufacturing partnerships (notably new capacity in South Korea) is expected to reduce revenue volatility and support scale-up. This should improve operating leverage and expand net earnings over time. Ongoing investment in automation and manufacturing capacity, supported by government contracts like the $10.5M Defense Innovation Unit award, positions Amprius to capture a larger share of future high-margin opportunities in defense and critical infrastructure, enhancing both revenue visibility and earnings stability.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious why analysts believe Amprius could deliver at a level only elite tech names achieve? The math behind this valuation is audacious, with big assumptions around future revenue, profits, and scale. Discover which ambitious projections define this optimism and see just how bold the scenario really is.

Result: Fair Value of $14.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, scaling up production and maintaining a lead over fast-evolving competitors could present challenges to the bullish outlook and put Amprius’s growth narrative to the test.

Find out about the key risks to this Amprius Technologies narrative.

Another View: High Price-to-Sales Ratio Raises Questions

While one approach values Amprius Technologies as having significant upside, the market’s current valuation looks far less conservative. Its price-to-sales ratio stands at 35.2x, compared to an industry average of just 2.6x and a fair ratio of 1.5x. This wide gap suggests the stock is priced for perfection. What happens if growth stalls or expectations reset?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Amprius Technologies Narrative

If you want to dig into the numbers, challenge these assumptions, or simply build your own forecast, you can shape your own story of Amprius in just minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Amprius Technologies research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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