Is Allison Transmission Holdings (NYSE:ALSN) A Risky Investment?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ALSN) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Check out the opportunities and risks within the US Machinery industry.

How Much Debt Does Allison Transmission Holdings Carry?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Allison Transmission Holdings had US$2.51b in debt in June 2022; about the same as the year before. However, it does have US$123.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$2.39b.

A Look At Allison Transmission Holdings' Liabilities

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Allison Transmission Holdings had liabilities of US$431.0m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$3.35b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$123.0m and US$363.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$3.30b.

This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of US$3.55b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Allison Transmission Holdings' use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Allison Transmission Holdings has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.7 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 6.2 times. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. One way Allison Transmission Holdings could vanquish its debt would be if it stops borrowing more but continues to grow EBIT at around 16%, as it did over the last year. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Allison Transmission Holdings can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Allison Transmission Holdings recorded free cash flow worth 68% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

Allison Transmission Holdings's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was a real positive on this analysis, as was its EBIT growth rate. Having said that, its level of total liabilities somewhat sensitizes us to potential future risks to the balance sheet. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Allison Transmission Holdings's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Allison Transmission Holdings (1 is potentially serious) you should be aware of.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.