Allison Transmission Holdings (NYSE:ALSN) Hasn't Managed To Accelerate Its Returns

What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? One common approach is to try and find a company with returns on capital employed (ROCE) that are increasing, in conjunction with a growing amount of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. However, after investigating Allison Transmission Holdings (NYSE:ALSN), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Allison Transmission Holdings, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.19 = US$776m ÷ (US$4.6b - US$487m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2022).

Thus, Allison Transmission Holdings has an ROCE of 19%. On its own, that's a standard return, however it's much better than the 11% generated by the Machinery industry.

View our latest analysis for Allison Transmission Holdings

In the above chart we have measured Allison Transmission Holdings' prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Allison Transmission Holdings here for free.

What Can We Tell From Allison Transmission Holdings' ROCE Trend?

Over the past five years, Allison Transmission Holdings' ROCE and capital employed have both remained mostly flat. It's not uncommon to see this when looking at a mature and stable business that isn't re-investing its earnings because it has likely passed that phase of the business cycle. So unless we see a substantial change at Allison Transmission Holdings in terms of ROCE and additional investments being made, we wouldn't hold our breath on it being a multi-bagger.

The Bottom Line

In summary, Allison Transmission Holdings isn't compounding its earnings but is generating stable returns on the same amount of capital employed. Unsurprisingly, the stock has only gained 8.1% over the last five years, which potentially indicates that investors are accounting for this going forward. So if you're looking for a multi-bagger, the underlying trends indicate you may have better chances elsewhere.

If you want to know some of the risks facing Allison Transmission Holdings we've found 3 warning signs (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.