A Fresh Look at AECOM (ACM) Valuation After New Guidance, Dividend Hike, and Strategic Review

AECOM (ACM) is making headlines after delivering a wave of big updates. The company set new earnings guidance for 2026, reported fourth-quarter results, boosted its dividend by 19%, and is exploring options for its Construction Management business.

See our latest analysis for AECOM.

AECOM’s shares have come under heavy pressure in the wake of these big announcements, with a 1-month share price return of -20.9% and a one-year total shareholder return of -4.8%. While some investors appear cautious in the short term, the stock is still up more than 110% over five years. This reflects solid progress for long-term holders, even though recent momentum has clearly faded.

If the wave of strategic changes at AECOM has you thinking about what’s next, this could be the perfect moment to broaden your perspective and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares taking a sharp dip despite upbeat long-term guidance and a bigger dividend, the key question now is whether AECOM is trading at a bargain or if the market has already factored in everything ahead.

Most Popular Narrative: 26% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value at $143.42, well above the most recent close of $106.14, the perception is that AECOM’s stock may not reflect its full future potential despite the recent dip. This valuation has sparked lively debate on whether the company can deliver on its ambitious growth and profit targets.

Accelerating global and U.S. government-backed infrastructure spending, especially in transportation, water, energy, and data centers, provides multi-year revenue visibility and a record backlog that should support top-line growth and backlog-driven earnings expansion. Intensifying investment and client demand for climate resilience, sustainability, and energy transition projects positions AECOM to win higher-margin advisory and environmental contracts, supporting margin expansion and higher average contract values.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the secret behind this bullish target? It is all about the scale of projected contract wins and the dramatic transformation of earnings power. Analysts are betting big on future profit margins and earnings multiples that buck current trends. The actual numbers driving these forecasts might surprise you. Do not miss out; find out what underpins this eye-catching fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $143.42 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, shifts in government infrastructure priorities or sudden changes in sector technology could quickly dampen AECOM's expected long-term gains.

Find out about the key risks to this AECOM narrative.

Another View: Taking a Closer Look at Value

Looking at value through earnings multiples puts AECOM's stock in a favorable light. The shares trade at 21.9 times earnings, much lower than both the industry average of 32.7 and the peer average of 49.2, and even below a fair ratio of 25.4. Such a discount may signal a potential opportunity, but can this gap really last or is the market telling us something?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out AECOM for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 921 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own AECOM Narrative

If you think there’s more to the story or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can easily craft your own perspective on AECOM in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your AECOM research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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