Sunrun (RUN): Valuation Check After New NRG Energy Partnership Targets Texas Solar‑Plus‑Storage Growth

Sunrun (RUN) just signed a multi year partnership with NRG Energy to roll out solar plus storage packages across Texas, turning thousands of homes into a flexible power resource for the ERCOT grid.

See our latest analysis for Sunrun.

Despite the recent pullback, with a 7 day share price return of minus 6.8 percent and a 30 day share price return of minus 8 percent, momentum over 2024 remains positive. This is supported by a 67.3 percent year to date share price gain and an 86.7 percent 1 year total shareholder return, even as the 3 year total shareholder return of minus 37.3 percent shows how volatile the story has been.

If Sunrun’s partnership has you rethinking where growth could come from next, it might be worth exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as potential candidates for your watchlist.

With shares still trading at a discount to analyst targets despite surging returns and a pivotal NRG deal, is Sunrun quietly undervalued, or is the market already baking in years of rooftop solar growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 24.9% Undervalued

With Sunrun last closing at $17.08 against a narrative fair value near the mid $22s, the story leans toward meaningful upside if assumptions hold.

Declining equipment and installation costs achieved through technological advancement, process optimization, and economies of scale are driving consistent reductions in customer acquisition and creation costs. These efficiencies are translating into record high net subscriber value and improved operating margins, supporting future earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady, double digit growth, a swing from deep losses to healthy margins, and a future profit multiple all combine into that upside case? The full narrative unpacks the earnings leap, revenue runway, and valuation math that have followers arguing this stock still has plenty of room to run.

Result: Fair Value of $22.74 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, looming solar tax credit expirations and potential tightening in financing conditions could quickly challenge Sunrun’s growth assumptions and the market’s optimistic margin outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Sunrun narrative.

Build Your Own Sunrun Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to stress test your own assumptions, you can spin up a fresh narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way

A great starting point for your Sunrun research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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