Rocket Lab (RKLB) Is Up 14.7% After Landmark US$805 Million SDA Satellite Contract Win - What's Changed

• In December 2025, Rocket Lab Corporation won an up to US$805 million prime contract from the U.S. Space Development Agency to build 18 missile-warning and tracking satellites and also completed the STP-S30 mission for the U.S. Space Force five months ahead of schedule.
• Together with fresh civil and international wins, these developments mark Rocket Lab’s shift from a small-launch specialist toward a vertically integrated national-security space contractor.
• We’ll now examine how Rocket Lab’s landmark SDA satellite contract reshapes its investment narrative around growth, risk, and long-term cash generation.

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Rocket Lab Investment Narrative Recap

To own Rocket Lab, you need to believe it can turn today’s high-cadence small launches, space systems, and Neutron development into durable cash generation despite ongoing losses and heavy investment. The SDA contract and early STP-S30 launch strengthen the near term catalyst around government credibility, while the biggest risk remains sustained cash burn and potential dilution if capital markets or program timing turn less friendly.

Among the recent updates, Neutron’s “Hungry Hippo” fairing qualification is most relevant, because it moves Rocket Lab closer to fielding a medium-lift, partially reusable rocket that could support larger national security and civil contracts. If Neutron’s first launch schedule or performance were to slip meaningfully, it could undermine the company’s pitch as a vertically integrated alternative for SDA class programs and similar opportunities.

Yet while the contract wins are eye catching, investors should also be aware of the ongoing cash consumption and the possibility that...

Read the full narrative on Rocket Lab (it's free!)

Rocket Lab’s narrative projects $1.3 billion revenue and $113.4 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Rocket Lab's forecasts yield a $65.67 fair value, a 7% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The 79 fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$9 to just under US$100 per share, highlighting sharply different views. Against that wide spread, the key tension remains between the new US$805 million SDA satellite award and the ongoing risk that high cash burn and project lumpiness affect the company’s ability to convert its backlog into sustainable returns.

Explore 79 other fair value estimates on Rocket Lab - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Rocket Lab Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Rocket Lab research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Rocket Lab research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Rocket Lab's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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