Rocket Lab (RKLB): Evaluating Valuation After Major NASA Mission Milestone and New Commercial Launch Announcement

Rocket Lab (RKLB) cleared a major milestone with the completion of the Systems Integration Review and its Photon spacecraft for NASA and Eta Space’s LOXSAT mission. In addition to this achievement, a new commercial launch with iQPS is now on the company’s books.

See our latest analysis for Rocket Lab.

Against the backdrop of these milestone missions, Rocket Lab’s stock has been on a tear, posting a 152% year-to-date share price return and a remarkable 460% total shareholder return over the last year. Momentum is clearly building as the company delivers on major government and commercial contracts alike, with its latest close at $62.98 reflecting investor enthusiasm for its expanding role in the space sector.

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Yet with shares already surging and analyst price targets sitting below its recent close, the big question is whether Rocket Lab is still undervalued or if the market has already priced in the company’s future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 7.4% Overvalued

The most widely followed narrative sees Rocket Lab trading above its fair value, with the last close price topping analyst consensus. The new price target reflects the company's momentum, but key execution milestones still loom large in investors' minds.

Rocket Lab's move toward end-to-end space solutions, including the acquisition of Geost and expanding vertically integrated payload, satellite, and launch service capabilities, uniquely positions the company to capture larger, national security and defense contracts like the Golden Dome and SDA constellations. This supports significant top-line growth and enhanced gross margins in future quarters. Escalating demand for real-time data, earth observation, and global connectivity is driving increasing recurring revenue opportunities through satellite constellation launches and manufacturing. Rocket Lab's high Electron launch cadence and in-house satellite production (including potential for future proprietary constellations) are enabling the company to capitalize on these industry tailwinds, supporting multi-year revenue growth and backlog expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what financial bets underpin this sky-high price target? The narrative is riding on bold revenue and profit forecasts, plus one massive future earnings leap. Why are analysts placing such rich multiples on Rocket Lab’s 2028 results? Dive in to see the quantitative building blocks behind the optimism and what could really send the valuation into orbit.

Result: Fair Value of $58.67 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, continued high R&D spending and uncertain timing for Neutron's debut could quickly dampen optimism if revenue growth does not materialize as projected.

Find out about the key risks to this Rocket Lab narrative.

Build Your Own Rocket Lab Narrative

If you have a different take or want to explore Rocket Lab's numbers firsthand, you can craft your own narrative and insights in just a few minutes, all with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Rocket Lab research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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