Can PACCAR’s (PCAR) Lower Earnings Reshape Analyst Views on Its Long-Term Growth Path?

• PACCAR Inc recently reported its third quarter 2025 financial results, revealing sales of US$6.11 billion and net income of US$590 million, both down significantly from the same period last year.
• This sharp earnings decline coincided with layoffs at a Quebec plant, as new U.S. tariffs on heavy-duty trucks approach, highlighting regulatory pressures on the company's operations.
• We’ll now explore how PACCAR’s lower quarterly earnings impact the company's long-term growth outlook and analyst expectations.

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PACCAR Investment Narrative Recap

If you’re holding PACCAR stock, you likely believe in its ability to rebound despite ongoing regulatory challenges and softening truck demand. The recent US$6.11 billion third quarter sales and further workforce reductions have increased near-term uncertainty, reinforcing that resolving trade and tariff risks remains the main catalyst and the biggest risk for earnings outlook. Unless there are further escalations, the impact could remain tightly linked to regulatory clarity and end-market recovery.

Of recent announcements, PACCAR’s July 2024 joint venture in battery cell manufacturing with Accelera and Daimler stands out. While it signals ongoing investment in future technologies, the timing and scale are unlikely to offset immediate disruptions from new tariffs or soft order trends for traditional vehicles.

Yet, despite PACCAR’s history of cyclical recovery, investors should also consider that supply chain pressures and evolving emissions standards...

Read the full narrative on PACCAR (it's free!)

PACCAR's outlook anticipates $32.1 billion in revenue and $4.2 billion in earnings by 2028. This relies on 1.1% annual revenue growth and a $1.1 billion increase in earnings from the current $3.1 billion.

Uncover how PACCAR's forecasts yield a $107.00 fair value, a 7% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members have set PACCAR’s fair value estimates between US$86 and US$119, across four different analyses. Ongoing trade and regulatory pressures could widen the gap between market price and these views, so compare these perspectives for a fuller picture.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on PACCAR - why the stock might be worth 14% less than the current price!

Build Your Own PACCAR Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your PACCAR research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free PACCAR research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate PACCAR's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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