The Middleby Corporation Just Missed EPS By 8.2%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

As you might know, The Middleby Corporation (NASDAQ:MIDD) last week released its latest third-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Middleby missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of US$943m and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.11, falling short by 5.4% and 8.2% respectively. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Middleby

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Middleby are now predicting revenues of US$4.02b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 3.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 30% to US$9.49. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.10b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.77 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$160 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Middleby at US$181 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$134. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Middleby's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.7% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Middleby's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$160, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Middleby analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Middleby has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.