We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Fastenal Valuation

Is FAST undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FAST?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

FAST key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA18.7x
PEG Ratio3.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FAST's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FAST vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16x
GWW W.W. Grainger
20.7x4.9%US$29.9b
URI United Rentals
12.2x5.8%US$23.8b
FERG Ferguson
11.3x0.003%US$23.7b
WSO Watsco
19.3x-2.1%US$9.5b
FAST Fastenal
26.8x6.9%US$28.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FAST is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.8x) compared to the peer average (16x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FAST's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Trade Distributors Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a10.6%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FAST is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.8x) compared to the US Trade Distributors industry average (11.4x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FAST's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FAST PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio26.8x
Fair PE Ratio20.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FAST is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FAST when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FAST ($50.27) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($39.13)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FAST is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FAST forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$50.27
US$48.10
-4.3%
7.8%US$55.00US$43.00n/a10
Nov ’23US$48.83
US$47.30
-3.1%
8.7%US$55.00US$42.00n/a10
Oct ’23US$46.04
US$48.85
+6.1%
10.9%US$60.00US$42.00n/a10
Sep ’23US$50.95
US$48.85
-4.1%
10.9%US$60.00US$42.00n/a10
Aug ’23US$51.54
US$48.05
-6.8%
11.2%US$60.00US$42.00n/a10
Jul ’23US$49.74
US$56.14
+12.9%
14.4%US$70.00US$44.50n/a11
Jun ’23US$53.91
US$57.05
+5.8%
13.9%US$70.00US$44.50n/a11
May ’23US$55.31
US$58.41
+5.6%
12.0%US$70.00US$44.50n/a11
Apr ’23US$59.67
US$56.45
-5.4%
11.8%US$66.00US$43.00n/a11
Mar ’23US$51.56
US$55.55
+7.7%
11.6%US$65.00US$43.00n/a11
Feb ’23US$56.51
US$55.55
-1.7%
11.6%US$65.00US$43.00n/a11
Jan ’23US$64.06
US$52.00
-18.8%
14.3%US$65.00US$39.00n/a11
Dec ’22US$58.47
US$51.09
-12.6%
13.4%US$65.00US$39.00n/a11
Nov ’22US$56.78
US$51.00
-10.2%
13.2%US$65.00US$39.00US$48.8311
Oct ’22US$51.68
US$51.00
-1.3%
12.4%US$65.00US$39.00US$46.0412
Sep ’22US$55.46
US$50.83
-8.3%
12.7%US$65.00US$38.00US$50.9512
Aug ’22US$54.77
US$49.91
-8.9%
12.8%US$60.00US$38.00US$51.5411
Jul ’22US$52.06
US$48.55
-6.8%
11.9%US$60.00US$38.00US$49.7411
Jun ’22US$52.54
US$49.00
-6.7%
12.1%US$60.00US$38.00US$53.9111
May ’22US$52.28
US$48.91
-6.4%
12.0%US$60.00US$38.00US$55.3111
Apr ’22US$51.11
US$48.42
-5.3%
11.3%US$60.00US$38.00US$59.6712
Mar ’22US$48.47
US$48.67
+0.4%
11.2%US$60.00US$38.00US$51.5612
Feb ’22US$46.42
US$48.67
+4.8%
11.2%US$60.00US$38.00US$56.5112
Jan ’22US$48.83
US$47.00
-3.7%
11.4%US$55.00US$36.00US$64.0612
Dec ’21US$48.52
US$46.92
-3.3%
11.5%US$55.00US$36.00US$58.4712
Nov ’21US$43.23
US$46.50
+7.6%
11.8%US$55.00US$36.00US$56.7812

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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