Axon Enterprise, Inc.

NasdaqGS:AXON Stock Report

Market Cap: US$31.1b

Axon Enterprise Future Growth

Future criteria checks 6/6

Axon Enterprise is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 31.9% and 20.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 26.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 21% in 3 years.

Key information

31.9%

Earnings growth rate

26.88%

EPS growth rate

Aerospace & Defense earnings growth18.3%
Revenue growth rate20.2%
Future return on equity21.00%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated07 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Apr 29

AXON: AI Data Moats And Recurring Revenue Will Support Future Sector Repricing

Axon Enterprise's updated analyst price target has been trimmed by about $10 to reflect slightly higher discount rate assumptions and sector wide multiple compression, even as analysts broadly highlight solid Q4 execution, long term growth opportunities, and recurring revenue strength as key supports for the outlook. Analyst Commentary Across recent research, analysts are broadly updating models for Axon Enterprise after Q4 results and fresh long term targets, with many trimming price targets to reflect sector wide multiple compression rather than company specific execution issues.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 21

Axon Enterprise: Impressive Growth, Real Margin Work Left

Summary Axon Enterprise has seen shares halve from their peak, yet sales growth and bookings remain robust, with 2026 guidance implying continued topline momentum. Despite strong revenue growth—up 33% in 2025 and guided 27-30% for 2026—Axon's profitability remains constrained by high stock-based compensation, only marginally declining next year. Valuation remains demanding at 9–10x forward sales, with minimal real profits and modest operating leverage, even after the significant pullback from highs. Long-term growth visibility is strong, with 2028 revenue guidance of $6 billion, but immediate investment appeal is limited by high multiples and slow margin expansion. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 14

AXON: AI Advancements And Sector Repricing Will Extend Public Safety Reach

Axon Enterprise's analyst price target has been reset from $815 to $717.68, as analysts adjust their models to reflect sector wide multiple compression, while still highlighting solid Q4 execution, higher revenue and margin assumptions, and a view that recent share weakness may not align with the company's updated long term outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent research paints a mixed picture around Axon Enterprise, with many analysts trimming price targets after Q4 results while still pointing to solid execution, updated guidance, and sector wide multiple compression as the main drivers of the reset.
Narrative Update • Mar 31

AXON: Sector Multiple Compression Will Confront AI Moats And Recurring Revenue

Axon Enterprise's updated fair value holds near $521, while the average analyst price target has been reset lower by roughly $50 to $100 per share to reflect sector wide multiple compression. Analysts continue to highlight solid Q4 results, stronger long term targets, and ongoing confidence in Axon's growth story and AI positioning.
Narrative Update • Mar 17

AXON: Sector Multiple Compression Will Confront Recurring Revenue And AI Opportunity

Axon Enterprise's updated analyst price target has been reduced by $0, with analysts citing sector wide multiple compression and current sentiment, even as they highlight solid Q4 results, stronger long term targets, recurring revenue growth and potential AI advantages in their rationale. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Axon reflects a mix of confidence in the business model and caution around valuation and sector sentiment.
New Narrative • Mar 12

From Tasers to SaaS: Axon’s Quiet Platform Transformation

One company I find particularly interesting is Axon Enterprise. Many investors still associate the company primarily with TASER devices, but I think the more compelling part of the story is how Axon has quietly transformed itself into a software and data platform for public safety.
Narrative Update • Mar 03

AXON: Sector Multiple Pressure Will Test Long Term Public Safety Expansion

The analyst price target underpinning our Axon Enterprise fair value has been revised to reflect a lower implied valuation, with fair value moving from about $639.60 to roughly $521.24 as analysts factor in sector wide multiple compression, alongside ongoing confidence in Axon's growth, recurring revenue profile, and long term product expansion. Analyst Commentary Across recent research updates, most firms have trimmed their Axon price targets, even as they reiterate broadly constructive views on the business model and product roadmap.
New Narrative • Feb 21

The Public Safety Monopoly: Buying the Dip on Valuation Gravity?

As of late February 2026, Axon Enterprise (AXON) is experiencing a sharp narrative shift. After hitting all-time highs earlier in the year, the stock has pulled back nearly 35% to the $433 range.
Narrative Update • Feb 17

AXON: Upgraded Rating And Higher Future P/E Support Long Term Upside

Analysts have lifted their Axon Enterprise price target to $742, citing updated views on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and expectations for a higher future P/E multiple that support a more constructive outlook on the shares. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are highlighting Axon Enterprise's refreshed valuation case, pointing to the new US$742 price target as evidence of confidence in the company’s ability to support a higher P/E multiple over time.
Analysis Article • Feb 11

Axon Enterprise, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXON) Shares Slammed 29% But Getting In Cheap Might Be Difficult Regardless

Axon Enterprise, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AXON ) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough...
Narrative Update • Feb 03

AXON: Expanding Public Safety Market Will Test Execution On New Cross Sell Opportunities

Analysts trimmed their Axon Enterprise fair value estimate by about US$3 to roughly US$640, reflecting updated assumptions for revenue growth, margins, and future P/E that incorporate recent ratings changes and mixed reactions to quarterly results. Analyst Commentary Recent research views on Axon Enterprise show a split between more optimistic and more cautious voices, with mixed reactions to the latest quarter feeding through to valuation updates and ratings changes.
Narrative Update • Jan 20

AXON: AI And Drones Will Extend Public Safety Market Reach

Axon Enterprise's analyst fair value estimate has inched lower from $822.50 to $815.00 as analysts factor in mixed Q3 orders, a slightly higher discount rate, and a blend of cautious and constructive views reflected in recent price target changes ranging from $610 to $860. Analyst Commentary Recent research highlights a split between bullish analysts focused on Axon Enterprise's longer term growth path and more cautious voices reacting to mixed Q3 orders and valuation questions.
Narrative Update • Jan 06

AXON: Large Public Safety Market Exposure Will Support Robust Recurring Cash Flows

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Axon Enterprise from $895 to $925. This reflects updated assumptions around revenue growth, profitability, discount rate and future P/E after weighing recent research that highlights both sustained demand potential and mixed near term order trends.
Narrative Update • Dec 21

AXON Will Balance Expanding Safety Market Opportunities With Execution And Competitive Risks

Analysts have raised their price target on Axon Enterprise by roughly $60 to reflect stronger expected revenue growth and the company’s expanding addressable market, even as they temper long term margin and valuation assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates highlight a generally constructive view on Axon’s long term growth prospects, but they also surface a set of more cautious perspectives around valuation, execution, and the durability of current growth rates.
Narrative Update • Dec 07

AXON: AI And Drones Will Expand Long-Term Frontline Worker Market Reach

Axon Enterprise's analyst price target has been nudged higher toward the mid to upper $800s per share. Analysts point to sustained roughly 25% revenue growth, expanding product innovation in areas such as artificial intelligence and drones, and a large, underpenetrated addressable market that together support a premium valuation multiple despite some near term order volatility.
Narrative Update • Nov 23

AXON: Expanding Into AI And Drones Will Drive Market Share Gains

Axon Enterprise's analyst price target has edged lower by approximately $1 to $822.50. Analysts cite sustained revenue growth and continued expansion opportunities, although recent results have led to more measured expectations.
Narrative Update • Nov 07

AXON: Expanding Into AI And Drones Will Drive Future Market Leadership

Axon Enterprise’s analyst price target has been lowered from $884.69 to $823.67, as analysts cite a mixed quarterly report and concerns over recent order trends. These concerns are balanced by continued confidence in the company’s innovation and market opportunities.
Narrative Update • Sep 02

Next-generation AI And Drones Will Transform Public Safety

Despite continued bullish sentiment around Axon's management strength, robust earnings outlook, and sector tailwinds in security and defense, analysts view much of this optimism as already priced in, resulting in a slight consensus price target reduction from $868.94 to $860.01. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight Axon's strong management team and robust earnings outlook, with ongoing high demand for its products and solutions.
Narrative Update • Aug 06

Next-generation AI And Drones Will Transform Public Safety

Driven by a substantial improvement in net profit margin and a notable reduction in future P/E, analysts have raised Axon Enterprise’s consensus price target from $781.27 to $866.67. What's in the News Axon Enterprise raised full-year 2025 earnings guidance, now projecting revenue of $2.65B to $2.73B, reflecting roughly 29% annual growth at the midpoint, up from prior guidance of $2.60B to $2.70B.
Analysis Article • Jul 15

If EPS Growth Is Important To You, Axon Enterprise (NASDAQ:AXON) Presents An Opportunity

For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...
Analysis Article • Jul 02

Axon Enterprise's (NASDAQ:AXON) Returns On Capital Are Heading Higher

If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...
Analysis Article • Jun 18

Axon Enterprise (NASDAQ:AXON) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...
Analysis Article • May 14

Why Axon Enterprise's (NASDAQ:AXON) Healthy Earnings Aren’t As Good As They Seem

Shareholders were pleased with the recent earnings report from Axon Enterprise, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AXON ). Despite this, we...
Seeking Alpha • Apr 20

Axon Enterprise: Strong Moat And Long Term Growth Support Hold, Despite High Valuation

Summary Axon Enterprises' strong moat is built on high switching costs and network effects, with impressive NRR and ARR growth, despite gross margin challenges. Axon's comprehensive ecosystem of hardware, software, and AI tools creates significant upselling opportunities and high switching costs for law enforcement agencies. International and enterprise markets offer substantial growth potential, with international bookings showing strong sequential growth and enterprise wins emerging as a key growth driver. Despite high valuation, Axon's robust ARR and NRR growth, along with international success, justify a hold rating, with potential for adding more if fundamentals remain strong. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 29

Axon Is Building God's Eye

Summary Axon is a rapidly growing security product vendor that's built a Walled Garden Ecosystem akin to Apple's hardware and software-defined Walled Garden Ecosystem. This ecosystem has created a unique set of technological capabilities for security agencies, which might be most effectively described as "God's Eye," or an "All Seeing Eye." In this review of Axon, I will describe what I mean by this; then, discuss value components of the thesis, i.e., growth runway and cash flow durability. I will then walk us through a brief valuation exercise and share some concluding thoughts, including risks to watch out for. In short, at $530/share, I like Axon's risk/return setup. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 12

Axon Enterprise: A Market Leader With Robust Growth Potential, But Still Overvalued

Summary Axon's evolution from a simple TASER manufacturer into a leader in public safety technology has been very impressive. With their comprehensive ecosystem and ability to expand their product selection, Axon has built a strong flywheel for revenue growth. Axon's market-leading NRR is a testament to the stickiness of their products and the significant value that their solutions provide. Axon's consistent innovation continues to expand their TAM, most notably in corrections, private enterprise, and overseas. Due to current valuation concerns, I am giving AXON a 'hold' rating until the share price falls closer to my estimated intrinsic value of ~$450 per share. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 05

Axon Enterprise: Long-Term Potential And Key Risks For Investors

Summary Axon Enterprise is a leading law enforcement tech firm with a strong product ecosystem and recurring revenue, but shares are currently overvalued. Transition to a subscription model enhances revenue predictability, yet antitrust risks and competition with Motorola may limit short-term potential. Axon's business model integrates hardware, software, and cloud services, with significant growth in wearable cameras and cloud-based evidence management. Despite long-term prospects, Axon shares are rated "Hold" with a fair price of $458, suggesting purchase only if value decreases to balanced levels. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 06

Axon Enterprise: A Buy Due To International Opportunities Plus Continued Revenue Growth

Summary Axon reported a 32% revenue increase in Q3 2024, with strong growth across all segments and a projected 30% year-over-year growth for Q4 2024. International expansion is a key growth driver, with a significant contract from the Canadian police and potential in Europe due to low product penetration. New product launches, like drones as first responders, enhance Axon's offerings, ensuring long-term revenue growth despite potential adoption delays. Political risks, such as tariffs from the Trump administration, could impact international expansion, but government customers may mitigate these effects. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 31

Axon Enterprise: Capitalizing On Strong Core Business And Innovative Drone Opportunities

Summary Axon's core business of TASERS, body cams, and cloud services for public safety providers continues to perform well. Axon completed its acquisition of Dedrone on October 2, 2024, enhancing its capabilities in airspace protection against drones. The company's solid core business and strategic move into new potentially profitable markets, such as drones, make it an attractive investment to consider. Despite potential overvaluation, I maintain a buy of Axon Enterprise for aggressive growth investors. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 24

Axon Enterprise: Great Business, Excessive Valuation

Summary Axon Enterprise, a leader in law enforcement tools, excels with TASER devices, body cameras, and cloud-based software, positioning it for sustainable growth. Despite impressive revenue growth and high gross margins, Axon's current valuation is overly optimistic, leading to a "hold" rating. Key risks include potential budget cuts for law enforcement agencies, regulatory changes, and foreign exchange fluctuations impacting financial performance. Axon’s strong market position and recurring revenue growth are promising, but the stock is priced for perfection, warranting caution. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 17

Axon Enterprise: One Of My Best Calls Ever Is Now A Nasdaq-100 Stock

Summary Axon leads in public safety tech with TASERs, body cameras, and AI tools, tackling U.S. crime and streamlining law enforcement operations. Strong growth continues, with +25% revenue increases, but its 127x P/E ratio signals caution for new investors. Long-term prospects are bright, but waiting for a price dip before investing may be wise. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 16

Axon Enterprise: AI Upside Negated By Full Valuation

Summary Axon Enterprises' strong Q3 earnings and potential of the new AI bundle have driven the stock to $600 per share, with growth expected to continue into 2025. The Taser business and software growth, including record revenue and net income, highlight Axon's robust financial performance and future potential. Despite high valuation, Axon's innovative AI tools and international opportunities support long-term growth, making the stock a hold for now. Current valuation is justified by fundamentals, but potential risks suggest a hold rating due to recent strength and market conditions. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:AXON - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20286,1275371,0011,36410
12/31/20274,72234275199217
12/31/20263,65327342861817
3/31/20262,98320620154N/A
12/31/20252,78012575211N/A
9/30/20252,558257145244N/A
6/30/20252,392326176276N/A
3/31/20252,226332363450N/A
12/31/20242,083377330408N/A
9/30/20241,938299220298N/A
6/30/20241,806293204270N/A
3/31/20241,678264162230N/A
12/31/20231,561176130189N/A
9/30/20231,466148133180N/A
6/30/20231,36699110158N/A
3/31/20231,27713787135N/A
12/31/20221,187147180235N/A
9/30/20221,07110459117N/A
6/30/20229921413793N/A
3/31/20229254351108N/A
12/31/2021863-6074124N/A
9/30/2021872-21103146N/A
6/30/2021806-7051141N/A
3/31/2021729-54586N/A
12/31/2020681-2-3438N/A
9/30/2020627-40-2050N/A
6/30/2020591-334561N/A
3/31/2020562-18093N/A
12/31/20195311N/A66N/A
9/30/201947415N/A51N/A
6/30/201944815N/A45N/A
3/31/201943523N/A32N/A
12/31/201842029N/A64N/A
9/30/201840025N/A57N/A
6/30/201838520N/A47N/A
3/31/201836614N/A43N/A
12/31/20173445N/A18N/A
9/30/201733114N/A-10N/A
6/30/201731317N/A-5N/A
3/31/201729218N/A4N/A
12/31/201626817N/A21N/A
9/30/201624216N/A38N/A
6/30/201622114N/A46N/A
3/31/201620916N/A41N/A
12/31/201519820N/A46N/A
9/30/201518920N/A43N/A
6/30/201518326N/A40N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AXON's forecast earnings growth (31.9% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: AXON's earnings (31.9% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AXON's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: AXON's revenue (20.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AXON's revenue (20.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AXON's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (21%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/07 22:53
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/07 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Axon Enterprise, Inc. is covered by 30 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
William PowerBaird
Timothy LongBarclays
Jordan LyonnaisBofA Global Research