AAON (AAON) Is Down 11.0% After Stronger Outlook And Insider Buying - What's Changed

• Earlier in December 2025, AAON reported third-quarter results that exceeded its own revenue and earnings guidance, raised its full-year outlook on strong data center demand, and disclosed that Executive Vice President Stephen E Wakefield bought additional company stock worth about US$484,400.
• These developments, alongside a leadership promotion effective January 1, 2026 and a scheduled cash dividend, highlight both management’s confidence and AAON’s growing focus on high-demand end markets like data centers.
• We’ll now examine how this combination of stronger guidance and insider buying could influence AAON’s existing investment narrative.

This technology could replace computers: discover 28 stocks that are working to make quantum computing a reality.

AAON Investment Narrative Recap

To own AAON, you need to believe its push into premium HVAC and data center cooling can offset ERP growing pains, higher costs and construction softness. The latest guidance raise and data center strength support the near term growth story, while the biggest current risk remains further ERP disruption that could blunt margin recovery. The recent insider purchase and leadership changes do not materially change that core risk reward profile, but they do speak to how management is positioning around it.

Among the recent announcements, the raised full year 2025 outlook tied to robust data center demand is most relevant, because it directly reinforces AAON’s key short term catalyst: converting its record, higher priced backlog into improved revenue and margins as operations stabilize. For investors, the question is how durable that data center strength will be if ERP issues or cash flow pressure slow the company’s ability to execute on its capacity expansion plans.

Yet even as data center demand supports guidance, investors should be aware that ERP rollout setbacks across multiple sites could still...

Read the full narrative on AAON (it's free!)

AAON's narrative projects $1.9 billion revenue and $283.0 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how AAON's forecasts yield a $115.25 fair value, a 57% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$95.67 to US$145 per share, underscoring how far apart individual views can be. Against that backdrop, the same investors must weigh ERP related execution risk that could affect how quickly AAON converts its stronger backlog into the earnings profile many are modeling.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on AAON - why the stock might be worth as much as 97% more than the current price!

Build Your Own AAON Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your AAON research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free AAON research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate AAON's overall financial health at a glance.

Contemplating Other Strategies?

Opportunities like this don't last. These are today's most promising picks. Check them out now:

• We've found 13 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.
• Trump's oil boom is here - pipelines are primed to profit. Discover the 22 US stocks riding the wave.
• The end of cancer? These 29 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com