Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for OTCPK:FSMK using Excess Returns Model Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP of Johnstown is arrived at using the Excess Return Model. This approach is used for finance firms where free cash flow is difficult to estimate.
In the Excess Return Model the value of a firm can be written as the sum of capital invested currently in the firm and the present value of excess returns that the firm expects to make in the future.
The model is sensitive to the Return on Equity of the company versus the Cost of Equity, how these are calculated is detailed below the main calculation.
Amount off the current price
1ST SUMMIT BANCORP of Johnstown
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
1ST SUMMIT BANCORP of Johnstown
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
1ST SUMMIT BANCORP of Johnstown's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a moderate discount (< 20%).
1ST SUMMIT BANCORP of Johnstown's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
1ST SUMMIT BANCORP of Johnstown's
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
1ST SUMMIT BANCORP of Johnstown's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
1ST SUMMIT BANCORP of Johnstown's earnings are expected to grow by 3.8% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Unable to determine if 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP of Johnstown is high growth as no revenue estimate data is available.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
1ST SUMMIT BANCORP of Johnstown's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
1ST SUMMIT BANCORP of Johnstown
has a total score of
2/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Fundamentally a bank's business is based upon borrowing and lending money, for
this reason they typically have high levels of debt and we analyse them
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of
1ST SUMMIT BANCORP of Johnstown's finances. If any of them are yellow this
indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t
however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest
on its debts this may have impacts in the future.
The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to
see the red area (debt) decreasing.
If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and
whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
1ST SUMMIT BANCORP of Johnstown, Inc. operates as the holding company for 1ST SUMMIT BANK that provides various banking products and services. The company accepts various deposits, such as checking, savings, interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing demand deposit, money market, and individual retirement accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. It offers personal loans, including auto, recreational vehicle, and educational loans; home equity loans; home equity line of credit; home mortgage loans; business lines of credit; commercial mortgage; equipment loans; equipment leasing; and commercial vehicle loans. The company also offers credit, prepaid, and gift cards; wealth management and investment services comprising trust, financial advisory and planning; life insurance and long-term care insurance services; and reorder checks, safe deposit boxes, and electronic banking services. In addition, it provides securities portfolio primarily consisting of issues of the United States government agencies, including mortgage-backed securities, municipal obligations, corporate debt, and equity securities of other financial institutions. Further, the company, through its subsidiary Cambria Thrift Consumer Discount Company, offers consumer finance products and services. It serves customers through 16 offices in Cambria, Somerset, Indiana, Blair, and Westmoreland counties in Pennsylvania. The company was formerly known as SUMMIT Bancorp, Inc. and changed its name to 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP of Johnstown, Inc. in 1996. 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP of Johnstown, Inc. was founded in 1924 and is based in Johnstown, Pennsylvania.
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