First Keystone Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of FKYS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

FKYS ($15.75) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($21.55)

Is FKYS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Book vs Peers
Price-To-Book vs Industry
Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FKYS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FKYS ($15.75) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($21.55)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FKYS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FKYS?

Key metric: As FKYS is an unprofitable bank we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for FKYS. This is calculated by dividing FKYS's market cap by their current book value.
What is FKYS's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio	0.9x
Book	US$107.34m
Market Cap	US$97.95m

FKYS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does FKYS's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for FKYS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PB	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	1x
FNWB First Northwest Bancorp	0.6x	114.8%	US$101.7m
TRBK Traditions Bancorp	1.4x	n/a	US$97.2m
AUBN Auburn National Bancorporation	1x	n/a	US$80.0m
RBKB Rhinebeck Bancorp	0.9x	n/a	US$105.5m
FKYS First Keystone	0.9x	n/a	US$97.9m

Price-To-Book vs Peers: FKYS is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (0.9x) compared to the peer average (1x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does FKYS's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

4 Companies	Price / Book	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
FRCB First Republic Bank	0.002x	n/a	US$27.98m
SBNY Signature Bank	0.0003x	n/a	US$2.18m
BKES.F Banco Espírito Santo	n/a	n/a	US$56.01k
BCBH.F Caribbean Investment Holdings	n/a	n/a	US$132.00

No more companies available in this PB range

4 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: FKYS is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (0.9x) compared to the US Banks industry average (1x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FKYS's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FKYS PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio	0.9x
Fair PB Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate FKYS's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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