Provident Financial Services, Inc.

NYSE:PFS Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.7b

Provident Financial Services Valuation

Is PFS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PFS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PFS ($20.42) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($30.88)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PFS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PFS?

Key metric: As PFS is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PFS. This is calculated by dividing PFS's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PFS's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio28.3x
EarningsUS$94.31m
Market CapUS$2.67b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PFS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PFS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.3x
TOWN TowneBank
18.4x21.7%US$2.7b
BANR Banner
15.3x7.5%US$2.5b
PRK Park National
22.2x1.3%US$3.0b
RNST Renasant
13.1x24.2%US$2.3b
PFS Provident Financial Services
28.3x49.3%US$2.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PFS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.3x) compared to the peer average (17.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PFS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FRCB First Republic Bank
0.02xn/aUS$27.98m
BKGM BankGuam Holding
1xn/aUS$18.48m
SBNY Signature Bank
0.002xn/aUS$2.18m
BCBH.F Caribbean Investment Holdings
0.00001xn/aUS$132.00
No more companies available in this PE range
PFS 28.3xIndustry Avg. 13.1xNo. of Companies77PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PFS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.3x) compared to the US Banks industry average (13.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PFS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PFS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio28.3x
Fair PE Ratio26.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PFS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.5x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PFS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$20.42
US$23.50
+15.1%
9.8%US$27.00US$21.00n/a4
Dec ’25US$21.12
US$23.00
+8.9%
10.2%US$27.00US$21.00n/a4
Nov ’25US$18.85
US$22.25
+18.0%
4.9%US$24.00US$21.00n/a4
Oct ’25US$17.91
US$21.80
+21.7%
6.1%US$24.00US$20.00n/a5
Sep ’25US$19.07
US$21.40
+12.2%
6.3%US$24.00US$20.00n/a5
Aug ’25US$17.77
US$21.20
+19.3%
6.9%US$24.00US$20.00n/a5
Jul ’25US$14.35
US$18.00
+25.4%
7.9%US$20.00US$16.00n/a5
Jun ’25US$14.40
US$18.20
+26.4%
8.1%US$20.00US$16.00n/a5
May ’25US$15.02
US$18.20
+21.2%
8.1%US$20.00US$16.00n/a5
Apr ’25US$14.51
US$17.80
+22.7%
9.0%US$19.00US$15.00n/a5
Mar ’25US$14.83
US$19.40
+30.8%
7.0%US$21.00US$17.00n/a5
Feb ’25US$16.26
US$19.80
+21.8%
3.8%US$21.00US$19.00n/a5
Jan ’25US$18.03
US$19.00
+5.4%
4.7%US$20.00US$18.00n/a5
Dec ’24US$16.24
US$17.20
+5.9%
10.0%US$20.00US$15.00US$21.125
Nov ’24US$14.21
US$17.20
+21.0%
10.0%US$20.00US$15.00US$18.855
Oct ’24US$15.29
US$20.40
+33.4%
8.5%US$23.00US$19.00US$17.915
Sep ’24US$16.91
US$20.60
+21.8%
7.9%US$23.00US$19.00US$19.075
Aug ’24US$18.66
US$20.20
+8.3%
10.6%US$23.00US$17.00US$17.775
Jul ’24US$16.34
US$20.60
+26.1%
13.2%US$25.00US$17.00US$14.355
Jun ’24US$16.35
US$20.80
+27.2%
13.0%US$25.00US$17.00US$14.405
May ’24US$16.94
US$21.40
+26.3%
9.6%US$25.00US$19.00US$15.025
Apr ’24US$19.18
US$25.00
+30.3%
4.4%US$27.00US$24.00US$14.515
Mar ’24US$23.19
US$25.40
+9.5%
5.3%US$27.00US$24.00US$14.835
Feb ’24US$23.72
US$24.80
+4.6%
7.8%US$27.00US$22.00US$16.265
Jan ’24US$21.36
US$24.40
+14.2%
9.2%US$27.00US$22.00US$18.035
Dec ’23US$22.35
US$24.20
+8.3%
8.4%US$27.00US$22.00US$16.245

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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