Guild Holdings Company Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Guild Holdings Company (NYSE:GHLD) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.6% to US$14.70 in the past week. It was a pretty mixed result, with revenues beating expectations to hit US$1.7b. Statutory earnings fell 5.6% short of analyst forecasts, reaching US$6.17 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Guild Holdings

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from four analysts covering Guild Holdings is for revenues of US$1.22b in 2021, implying a sizeable 27% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.22b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.47 in 2021. Overall, while the analysts have reconfirmed their revenue estimates, the consensus now no longer provides an EPS estimate, suggesting that the market believes revenue is more important after these latest results.

We'd also point out that thatthe analysts have made no major changes to their price target of US$19.20. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Guild Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$22.00 and the most bearish at US$18.50 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 27% by the end of 2021. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 118% over the last year. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 4.2% per year. The forecasts do look bearish for Guild Holdings, since they're expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their revenue estimates for next year, suggesting that the business is performing in line with expectations. The consensus also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that sales are performing in line with expectations. Plus, our data suggests that Guild Holdings is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$19.20, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

At least one of Guild Holdings' four analysts has provided estimates out to 2023, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Guild Holdings is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

If you decide to trade Guild Holdings, use the lowest-cost* platform that is rated #1 Overall by Barron’s, Interactive Brokers. Trade stocks, options, futures, forex, bonds and funds on 135 markets, all from a single integrated account. Promoted

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
^*Interactive Brokers Rated Lowest Cost Broker by StockBrokers.com Annual Online Review 2020

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.