Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB): Assessing Valuation Following Recent Share Price Decline

Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) stock has experienced a mixed run recently, with shares slipping about 6% over the past month and down 18% year-to-date. Despite this, annual revenue and net income have posted solid growth. This may catch the attention of investors taking a long-term view.

See our latest analysis for Atlantic Union Bankshares.

After sliding nearly 6% over the past month, Atlantic Union Bankshares’ share price is still down more than 12% year-to-date and the one-year total shareholder return remains negative at -18.3%. While the short-term momentum has faded, steady gains over three and five years suggest long-term investors could see rewards as growth pressures work through the system.

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With the share price still trading below analyst targets and key financial metrics trending upward, the real question is whether Atlantic Union Bankshares is currently undervalued or if the market is already factoring in future gains.

Most Popular Narrative: 22.4% Undervalued

Atlantic Union Bankshares’ most-followed fair value estimate suggests the stock has meaningful upside from its recent close. The narrative sets a premium target compared to the current market price, hinging on business transformation and ambitious profit targets ahead.

The successful integration of Sandy Spring Bank and the sale of $2 billion in commercial real estate loans have reduced risk concentrations, freed up lending capacity, and expanded the company's customer base in markets with the lowest unemployment nationally. This supports better credit performance, new fee income, and future earnings upside.

Read the complete narrative.

Craving details on why analysts see more than just an ordinary bank play? Their optimistic scenario relies on growth moves, margin expansion, and a bold leap in future profitability. What is the magic combination propelling this bullish valuation? Hunt for the surprising metrics that anchor this price.

Result: Fair Value of $41.56 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, concentrated exposure in a few regions and lagging digital innovation could threaten future growth if local economies falter or if fintech competition intensifies.

Find out about the key risks to this Atlantic Union Bankshares narrative.

Another View: Are High Multiples a Warning Sign?

While analysts see upside, the current valuation based on its price-to-earnings ratio may give cautious investors pause. Atlantic Union Bankshares trades at 22.1 times earnings, which is twice the US Banks industry average of 11 times and significantly above the peer average of 11.5 times. The market is valuing AUB higher than both its direct peers and what our fair ratio analysis of 20 times suggests is justified. This premium raises concerns about whether expectations are already fully priced in or if there is still true value left for new investors.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Atlantic Union Bankshares Narrative

Prefer to dig into the details on your own and shape your own thesis? You can easily build a custom view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Atlantic Union Bankshares research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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