Commerce Bancshares, Inc.

NasdaqGS:CBSH Stock Report

Market Cap: US$9.2b

Commerce Bancshares Valuation

Is CBSH undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CBSH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CBSH ($71.57) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($110.5)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CBSH is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CBSH?

Key metric: As CBSH is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CBSH. This is calculated by dividing CBSH's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CBSH's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18.5x
EarningsUS$494.82m
Market CapUS$9.18b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CBSH's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CBSH vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17x
PNFP Pinnacle Financial Partners
23.5x23.6%US$9.5b
SSB SouthState
16.3x27.9%US$8.1b
ZION Zions Bancorporation National Association
13.6x6.3%US$8.8b
WTFC Wintrust Financial
14.5x6.7%US$8.8b
CBSH Commerce Bancshares
18.5x0.3%US$9.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CBSH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x) compared to the peer average (17x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CBSH's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FRCB First Republic Bank
0.02xn/aUS$27.98m
BKGM BankGuam Holding
1xn/aUS$18.48m
SBNY Signature Bank
0.002xn/aUS$2.18m
BCBH.F Caribbean Investment Holdings
0.00001xn/aUS$132.00
No more companies available in this PE range
CBSH 18.5xIndustry Avg. 12.9xNo. of Companies80PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CBSH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x) compared to the US Banks industry average (12.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CBSH's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CBSH PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.5x
Fair PE Ratio13.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CBSH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CBSH forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$71.57
US$69.36
-3.1%
8.4%US$80.00US$62.00n/a7
Nov ’25US$62.65
US$66.07
+5.5%
3.8%US$70.00US$62.00n/a7
Oct ’25US$57.43
US$66.50
+15.8%
4.7%US$71.00US$62.00n/a7
Sep ’25US$63.96
US$66.06
+3.3%
4.4%US$71.00US$62.00n/a8
Aug ’25US$62.82
US$65.19
+3.8%
6.1%US$71.00US$58.00n/a8
Jul ’25US$55.22
US$58.25
+5.5%
5.7%US$64.00US$52.00n/a8
Jun ’25US$55.64
US$57.63
+3.6%
6.3%US$64.00US$52.00n/a8
May ’25US$55.76
US$55.75
-0.02%
5.3%US$61.00US$52.00n/a8
Apr ’25US$52.43
US$52.89
+0.9%
5.0%US$57.50US$49.52n/a7
Mar ’25US$51.92
US$53.18
+2.4%
5.2%US$57.50US$49.52n/a7
Feb ’25US$51.81
US$53.96
+4.2%
9.9%US$64.00US$46.00n/a7
Jan ’25US$53.41
US$49.61
-7.1%
6.0%US$55.00US$46.00n/a6
Dec ’24US$49.53
US$48.65
-1.8%
3.3%US$51.43US$46.67n/a6
Nov ’24US$41.35
US$48.57
+17.5%
3.2%US$51.43US$46.67US$62.656
Oct ’24US$45.70
US$49.68
+8.7%
4.1%US$53.33US$46.67US$57.436
Sep ’24US$47.57
US$50.16
+5.4%
5.3%US$53.33US$45.71US$63.966
Aug ’24US$51.04
US$50.48
-1.1%
5.6%US$53.33US$45.71US$62.826
Jul ’24US$46.38
US$51.75
+11.6%
8.3%US$58.10US$45.71US$55.226
Jun ’24US$46.34
US$53.97
+16.5%
7.7%US$58.10US$45.71US$55.646
May ’24US$52.89
US$55.24
+4.4%
6.5%US$58.10US$47.62US$55.766
Apr ’24US$55.57
US$64.76
+16.5%
4.1%US$68.57US$60.95US$52.436
Mar ’24US$62.55
US$65.40
+4.5%
3.1%US$68.57US$61.90US$51.926
Feb ’24US$62.90
US$65.24
+3.7%
3.2%US$68.57US$61.90US$51.816
Jan ’24US$64.83
US$65.55
+1.1%
3.3%US$68.57US$61.90US$53.417
Dec ’23US$67.43
US$64.93
-3.7%
4.9%US$68.93US$58.96US$49.536
Nov ’23US$64.48
US$63.64
-1.3%
4.6%US$68.93US$58.96US$41.356

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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