Commerce Bancshares, Inc.

NasdaqGS:CBSH Stock Report

Market Cap: US$9.0b

Commerce Bancshares Valuation

Is CBSH undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CBSH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CBSH ($63.87) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($105.15)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CBSH is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CBSH?

Key metric: As CBSH is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CBSH. This is calculated by dividing CBSH's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CBSH's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.4x
EarningsUS$494.82m
Market CapUS$8.98b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CBSH's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CBSH vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.6x
SSB SouthState
15.4x28.9%US$8.1b
PNFP Pinnacle Financial Partners
21.1x23.9%US$9.0b
ZION Zions Bancorporation National Association
12.1x6.1%US$8.3b
WTFC Wintrust Financial
13.7x7.5%US$8.7b
CBSH Commerce Bancshares
17.4x1.5%US$9.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CBSH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.4x) compared to the peer average (15.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CBSH's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FRCB First Republic Bank
0.02xn/aUS$27.98m
BKGM BankGuam Holding
1xn/aUS$18.48m
SBNY Signature Bank
0.002xn/aUS$2.18m
BCBH.F Caribbean Investment Holdings
0.00001xn/aUS$132.00
No more companies available in this PE range
CBSH 17.4xIndustry Avg. 12.9xNo. of Companies83PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CBSH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.4x) compared to the US Banks industry average (12.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CBSH's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CBSH PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.4x
Fair PE Ratio13.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CBSH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CBSH forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$63.87
US$70.50
+10.4%
5.2%US$76.19US$63.81n/a7
Dec ’25US$70.24
US$67.41
-4.0%
7.9%US$76.19US$59.05n/a7
Nov ’25US$59.67
US$62.93
+5.5%
3.8%US$66.67US$59.05n/a7
Oct ’25US$54.70
US$63.33
+15.8%
4.7%US$67.62US$59.05n/a7
Sep ’25US$60.91
US$62.92
+3.3%
4.4%US$67.62US$59.05n/a8
Aug ’25US$59.83
US$62.08
+3.8%
6.1%US$67.62US$55.24n/a8
Jul ’25US$52.59
US$55.48
+5.5%
5.7%US$60.95US$49.52n/a8
Jun ’25US$52.99
US$54.88
+3.6%
6.3%US$60.95US$49.52n/a8
May ’25US$53.10
US$53.10
-0.02%
5.3%US$58.10US$49.52n/a8
Apr ’25US$49.93
US$50.38
+0.9%
5.0%US$54.76US$47.17n/a7
Mar ’25US$49.45
US$50.65
+2.4%
5.2%US$54.76US$47.17n/a7
Feb ’25US$49.34
US$51.39
+4.2%
9.9%US$60.95US$43.81n/a7
Jan ’25US$50.87
US$47.25
-7.1%
6.0%US$52.38US$43.81n/a6
Dec ’24US$47.17
US$46.33
-1.8%
3.3%US$48.98US$44.45US$70.246
Nov ’24US$39.38
US$46.26
+17.5%
3.2%US$48.98US$44.44US$59.676
Oct ’24US$43.52
US$47.32
+8.7%
4.1%US$50.79US$44.44US$54.706
Sep ’24US$45.31
US$47.77
+5.4%
5.3%US$50.79US$43.54US$60.916
Aug ’24US$48.61
US$48.07
-1.1%
5.6%US$50.79US$43.54US$59.836
Jul ’24US$44.17
US$49.28
+11.6%
8.3%US$55.33US$43.54US$52.596
Jun ’24US$44.14
US$51.40
+16.5%
7.7%US$55.33US$43.54US$52.996
May ’24US$50.37
US$52.61
+4.4%
6.5%US$55.33US$45.35US$53.106
Apr ’24US$52.93
US$61.68
+16.5%
4.1%US$65.31US$58.05US$49.936
Mar ’24US$59.57
US$62.28
+4.5%
3.1%US$65.31US$58.96US$49.456
Feb ’24US$59.90
US$62.13
+3.7%
3.2%US$65.31US$58.96US$49.346
Jan ’24US$61.74
US$62.43
+1.1%
3.3%US$65.31US$58.96US$50.877
Dec ’23US$64.22
US$61.84
-3.7%
4.9%US$65.65US$56.15US$47.176

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/18 02:05
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/18 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. is covered by 23 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Matthew KeatingBarclays
Brandon BermanBofA Global Research
null nullD.A. Davidson & Co.