Sierra Bancorp Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

It's been a good week for Sierra Bancorp (NASDAQ:BSRR) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 8.9% to US$29.28. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$40m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 8.2% to hit US$0.72 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Sierra Bancorp from five analysts is for revenues of US$163.1m in 2026. If met, it would imply a meaningful 13% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 13% to US$3.40. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$160.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.15 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Sierra Bancorp's earnings potential following these results.

See our latest analysis for Sierra Bancorp

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$32.75, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Sierra Bancorp at US$36.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$30.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Sierra Bancorp's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 10% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.8% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 8.1% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Sierra Bancorp to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Sierra Bancorp's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Sierra Bancorp. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Sierra Bancorp going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Sierra Bancorp you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.