New Risk • Dec 21
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 12% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings have declined by 12% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings (215% payout ratio). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (5.0% net profit margin). Declared Dividend • Nov 05
Third quarter dividend of US$0.10 announced Dividend of US$0.10 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 14th November 2025 Payment date: 28th November 2025 Dividend yield will be 3.5%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.2%. Sustainability & Growth The dividend has increased by an average of 9.6% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 139% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 69% over the next year, which means the dividend may need to be reduced to reach a sustainable payout ratio. Reported Earnings • Oct 31
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.19 (up from US$0.16 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: US$13.6m (up 7.5% from 3Q 2024). Net income: US$2.36m (up 18% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 17% (up from 16% in 3Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 12%. Revenue is forecast to grow 16% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 8.1% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 39% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 4% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Oct 31
BankFinancial Corporation Declares Cash Dividend on Common Share, Payable on November 28, 2025 On October 30, 2025, the Board of Directors of BankFinancial Corporation declared a cash dividend of $0.10 per common share. The dividend will be payable on November 28, 2025 to stockholders of record on November 14, 2025. New Risk • Oct 31
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 8.8% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings have declined by 8.8% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings (255% payout ratio). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (4.3% net profit margin). Price Target Changed • Aug 12
Price target decreased by 7.8% to US$11.75 Down from US$12.75, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of US$11.53. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$0.67 for next year compared to US$0.33 last year. Announcement • Aug 12
First Financial Bancorp. (NasdaqGS:FFBC) agreed to acquire BankFinancial Corporation (NasdaqGS:BFIN) for approximately $140 million. First Financial Bancorp. (NasdaqGS:FFBC) agreed to acquire BankFinancial Corporation (NasdaqGS:BFIN) for approximately $140 million on August 11, 2025. Upon the terms and subject to the conditions set forth in the Merger Agreement, at the effective time of the Merger, each share of common stock, of Seller, issued and outstanding immediately prior to the Effective Time, will be converted into the right to receive 0.480 of a share of common stock, no par value, of the Company.
In case of termination of transaction, seller will pay a termination fee of $5 million.
The transaction is subject to approval by regulatory board / committee, approval of merger agreement by target board, approval of offer by acquirer board, approval of offer by target shareholders, listing / approval of new shares on stock exchange and registration statement effectiveness(S-4 / F-4). The deal has been unanimously approved by the board. The Merger is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025.
James J. Barresi of Squire Patton Boggs LLP acted as legal advisor for First Financial Bancorp. Edwin S. del Hierro P.C. of Kirkland & Ellis LLP acted as legal advisor for BankFinancial Corporation. Ned A. Quint of Luse Gorman, P.C acted as legal advisor for BankFinancial Corporation. Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC acted as financial advisor for First Financial Bancorp. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc. acted as financial advisor for First Financial Bancorp. Reported Earnings • Aug 08
Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2025 results: US$0.029 loss per share (down from US$0.17 profit in 2Q 2024). Revenue: US$11.0m (down 22% from 2Q 2024). Net loss: US$359.0k (down 117% from profit in 2Q 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 16% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 7.7% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 27% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 3% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. New Risk • Aug 07
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 6.5% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings have declined by 6.5% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings (112% payout ratio). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (9.2% net profit margin). Declared Dividend • Aug 07
First quarter dividend of US$0.10 announced Dividend of US$0.10 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 15th August 2025 Payment date: 29th August 2025 Dividend yield will be 3.7%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.2%. Sustainability & Growth The dividend has increased by an average of 17% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 25% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 37% over the next year, which is sufficient to bring the dividend into a sustainable range. Announcement • Aug 06
BankFinancial Corporation announces Quarterly dividend, payable on August 29, 2025 BankFinancial Corporation announced Quarterly dividend of USD 0.1000 per share payable on August 29, 2025, ex-date on August 15, 2025 and record date on August 15, 2025. Announcement • Jul 03
Bankfinancial Corporation Announces Committee Changes The proxy statement for the 2025 Annual Meeting of stockholders of BankFinancial Corporation inadvertently omitted Director Glen Wherfel’s membership on the Company’s Audit Committee as of December 31, 2024 and continuing until the 2025 Annual Meeting. Director Wherfel is retiring from board service, effective at the 2025 Annual Meeting. Accordingly, the Audit Committee currently consists of John M. Hausmann, C.P.A., Chairman, Terry R. Wells, and Glen R. Wherfel, C.P.A., each of whom is an independent director under Nasdaq and Securities and Exchange Commission regulations. The Board of Directors will appoint a replacement for Mr. Wherfel, effective on his retirement, such that there will be at least three independent Directors constituting the Company’s Audit Committee consistent with the Company’s historical practices in compliance with applicable listing requirements. Announcement • Jun 02
BankFinancial Corporation, Annual General Meeting, Jul 21, 2025 BankFinancial Corporation, Annual General Meeting, Jul 21, 2025. Location: chicago marriott southwest, burr ridge, 1200 burr ridge pkwy., burr ridge, illinois., United States Declared Dividend • Apr 30
First quarter dividend of US$0.10 announced Dividend of US$0.10 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 9th May 2025 Payment date: 23rd May 2025 Dividend yield will be 3.2%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth The dividend has increased by an average of 17% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 25% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 41% over the next year, which is sufficient to bring the dividend into a sustainable range. Reported Earnings • Apr 27
First quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind First quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.17 (up from US$0.14 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: US$13.4m (down 3.9% from 1Q 2024). Net income: US$2.08m (up 22% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 16% (up from 12% in 1Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 5.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 13%. Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 7.1% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 12% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 6% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. New Risk • Apr 25
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 4.3% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings have declined by 4.3% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings (122% payout ratio). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (8.3% net profit margin). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 27
Now 24% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 3.9% to US$12.99. The fair value is estimated to be US$10.50, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue is forecast to grow by 22% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 149% in the next 2 years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 12
Now 20% overvalued The stock has been flat over the last 90 days, currently trading at US$12.60. The fair value is estimated to be US$10.50, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue is forecast to grow by 22% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 149% in the next 2 years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 25
Now 21% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 4.3% to US$12.66. The fair value is estimated to be US$10.50, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue is forecast to grow by 22% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 149% in the next 2 years. Price Target Changed • Feb 21
Price target increased by 10% to US$13.50 Up from US$12.25, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of US$12.90. Stock is up 27% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$0.61 for next year compared to US$0.33 last year. New Risk • Feb 09
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by earnings. Payout ratio: 121% Current dividend yield: 3.0% This is considered a minor risk. Companies that pay out too much of their earnings are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If earnings growth slows or earnings fall, then there may not be enough earnings to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to dig into capital reserves or take on debt to maintain the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings (121% payout ratio). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (8.3% net profit margin). Declared Dividend • Feb 05
Fourth quarter dividend of US$0.10 announced Dividend of US$0.10 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 14th February 2025 Payment date: 28th February 2025 Dividend yield will be 3.1%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (63% payout ratio) and is expected to be covered in 3 years' time (45% forecast payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 26% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 121% over the next 2 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Feb 04
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: US$0.33 (down from US$0.74 in FY 2023). Revenue: US$49.2m (down 12% from FY 2023). Net income: US$4.07m (down 57% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 8.3% (down from 17% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 53%. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.8% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 7.5% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 2% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 6% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Price Target Changed • Jan 19
Price target increased by 10% to US$13.50 Up from US$12.25, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 9.0% above last closing price of US$12.38. Stock is up 15% over the past year. The company posted earnings per share of US$0.74 last year. Price Target Changed • Dec 19
Price target increased by 11% to US$12.75 Up from US$11.50, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of US$12.39. Stock is up 18% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$0.70 for next year compared to US$0.74 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 06
Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.16 (down from US$0.19 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: US$12.7m (down 10.0% from 3Q 2023). Net income: US$1.99m (down 16% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 16% (down from 17% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 6.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 18%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.5% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 6.4% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 9% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Aug 02
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS in line with expectations, revenues disappoint Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.17 (down from US$0.18 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: US$14.0m (down 2.8% from 2Q 2023). Net income: US$2.13m (down 7.7% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 15% (in line with 2Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 6.9% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 6.3% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 13% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Declared Dividend • Jul 31
First quarter dividend of US$0.10 announced Dividend of US$0.10 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 9th August 2024 Payment date: 23rd August 2024 Dividend yield will be 3.3%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth The dividend has increased by an average of 26% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 12% over the next year, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Jul 27
BankFinancial Corporation Declares Cash Dividend, Payable on August 23, 2024 On July 25, 2024, the Board of Directors of BankFinancial Corporation declared a cash dividend of $0.10 per common share. The dividend will be payable on August 23, 2024 to stockholders of record on August 9, 2024. Reported Earnings • May 12
First quarter 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind First quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.14 (down from US$0.21 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: US$14.0m (up 1.5% from 1Q 2023). Net income: US$1.71m (down 35% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 12% (down from 19% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 12%. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.1% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 6.0% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 17% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Declared Dividend • May 01
Fourth quarter dividend of US$0.10 announced Dividend of US$0.10 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 9th May 2024 Payment date: 24th May 2024 Dividend yield will be 4.1%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (54% payout ratio) and is expected to be covered in 3 years' time (47% forecast payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 26% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 14% over the next 2 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Apr 27
BankFinancial Corporation Declares Cash Dividend, Payable on May 24, 2024 BankFinancial Corporation announced that its Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.10 per common share. The dividend will be payable on May 24, 2024, to stockholders of record on May 10, 2024. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 25
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 3.1% to US$10.30. The fair value is estimated to be US$12.96, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 4.7% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 18%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 13% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 12% in the next 2 years. Price Target Changed • Feb 18
Price target increased by 15% to US$11.50 Up from US$10.03, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 12% above last closing price of US$10.26. Stock is down 0.5% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$0.76 for next year compared to US$0.74 last year. Announcement • Feb 10
BankFinancial Corporation Announces Board Appointments On February 7, 2024, the Board of Directors of BankFinancial Corporation expanded its size to eight members from six members, and elected Aaron O’Connor and Benjamin Mackovak to the Company’s Board of Directors to fill the vacancies created by the increase in the size of the Board of Directors, effective immediately. Mr. O’Connor is a member of the class of directors whose term expires at the 2025 Annual Meeting of the Stockholders of the Company, and Mr. Mackovak is a member of the class of directors whose term expires at the 2026 Annual Meeting of the Stockholders of the Company. Mr. O’Connor has previously served as a member of the Board of Directors of BankFinancial, NA, the Company’s wholly owned subsidiary. Mr. O’Connor is a certified public accountant and is a partner with Bridge CPA LLC and was formerly a partner at the public accounting firm PKF Mueller and a financial services partner with the public accounting firm Crowe LLP. Mr. O’Connor has served on the board of directors of BankFinancial NA since January, 2023. Mr. O’Connor will serve as a director of BankFinancial Corporation in the class of directors with terms expiring at BFIN’s 2025 Annual Meeting of stockholders. Mr. Mackovak is a co-founder and managing member of Strategic Value Bank Partners, LLC, an investment firm based in Cleveland, Ohio that invests in community banks. Strategic Value Bank Partners is one of BankFinancial Corporation’s larger institutional stockholders. Mr. Mackovak has significant current and prior experience as a board member of other community banks and thrifts. Prior to co-founding Strategic Value Bank Partners, Mr. Mackovak had senior leadership roles and experience with several investment analysis and advisory firms since 2004. Mr. Mackovak will serve as a director of BankFinancial Corporation in the class of directors with terms expiring at BFIN’s 2026 Annual Meeting of stockholders. Announcement • Feb 07
M3F Discloses its Views on BankFinancial Corporation On February 5, 2024, Jason Stock of M3F Inc. announced that during BankFinancial Corporation's 2023 fourth-quarter earnings call held on February 2, 2024, Jason Stock stated that the Company’s management has ‘done a great job building and maintaining what he'd say is a really attractive deposit franchise,’ and that it should ‘find a partner that can take the bank forward from here.’ Jason Stock expressed his view that it would probably be irresponsible of him not to pipe in and say that he agrees with all the comments that have been made about the outlook for the bank as an independent entity. Jason Stock added that his comments came after a handful of other investors pushed executives for details on how the bank could improve its financial performance while also pushing for a sale. Reported Earnings • Feb 02
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: US$0.74 (down from US$0.80 in FY 2022). Revenue: US$55.9m (up 2.6% from FY 2022). Net income: US$9.39m (down 11% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 17% (down from 19% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 6.3%. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.6% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 5.6% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 18% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Feb 01
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 14% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Declared Dividend • Feb 01
Third quarter dividend of US$0.10 announced Dividend of US$0.10 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 8th February 2024 Payment date: 23rd February 2024 Dividend yield will be 3.7%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.1%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by earnings (47% payout ratio) and is expected to be well covered in 3 years' time (46% forecast payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 26% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 6.9% over the next 2 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Jan 27
BankFinancial Corporation Declares Cash Dividend, Payable on February 23, 2024 BankFinancial Corporation announced that its Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.10 per common share. The dividend will be payable on February 23, 2024, to stockholders of record on February 9, 2024. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 24
Now 22% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 24% to US$10.61. The fair value is estimated to be US$8.68, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 4.2% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 17%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 11% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 2.3% in the next 2 years. Board Change • Jan 01
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 1 experienced director. 5 highly experienced directors. Independent Director Debra Zukonik was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 02
Upcoming dividend of US$0.10 per share at 4.7% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 09 November 2023. Payment date: 24 November 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 47% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.7%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (5.3%). Higher than average of industry peers (4.0%). Reported Earnings • Oct 31
Third quarter 2023 earnings: Revenues and EPS in line with analyst expectations Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0.19 (down from US$0.25 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: US$14.1m (down 5.4% from 3Q 2022). Net income: US$2.37m (down 27% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 17% (down from 22% in 3Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 4.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.4% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 17% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Oct 28
BankFinancial Corporation Declares Cash Dividend, Payable on November 24, 2023 BankFinancial Corporation announced that its Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.10 per common share. The dividend will be payable on November 24, 2023, to stockholders of record on November 10, 2023. New Risk • Aug 13
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 7.8% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 04
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 34% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from US$60.0m to US$56.6m. EPS estimate also fell from US$1.02 per share to US$0.67 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 15% next year vs 11% decline forecast for Banks industry in the US. Consensus price target up from US$9.50 to US$10.00. Share price fell 4.6% to US$8.52 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Aug 03
Upcoming dividend of US$0.10 per share at 4.6% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 10 August 2023. Payment date: 25 August 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 44% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.6%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (4.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.4%). Reported Earnings • Jul 30
Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0.18 (down from US$0.20 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: US$14.4m (up 6.4% from 2Q 2022). Net income: US$2.31m (down 9.9% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 16% (down from 19% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 5.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 32%. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.2% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 4.4% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 11% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 7% per year. Announcement • Jul 29
BankFinancial Corporation Declares Cash Dividend, Payable on August 25, 2023 BankFinancial Corporation announced that its Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.10 per common share. The dividend will be payable on August 25, 2023, to stockholders of record on August 11, 2023. Buying Opportunity • Jun 17
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 12%. The fair value is estimated to be US$9.97, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 5.0%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 7.1% in a year. Earnings is forecast to grow by 8.5% in the next year. Price Target Changed • May 14
Price target decreased by 14% to US$9.50 Down from US$11.00, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 31% above last closing price of US$7.24. Stock is down 26% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$0.99 for next year compared to US$0.80 last year. Major Estimate Revision • May 09
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from US$62.1m to US$59.5m. EPS estimate also fell from US$1.15 per share to US$0.99 per share. Net income forecast to grow 8.4% next year vs 5.9% decline forecast for Banks industry in the US. Consensus price target of US$10.50 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 7.9% to US$7.46 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • May 04
Upcoming dividend of US$0.10 per share at 5.2% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 11 May 2023. Payment date: 26 May 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 44% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 5.2%. Within top quartile of American dividend payers (5.1%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.8%). Reported Earnings • May 03
First quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0.21 (up from US$0.096 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: US$13.8m (up 15% from 1Q 2022). Net income: US$2.63m (up 108% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 19% (up from 11% in 1Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 9.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 24%. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.6% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 2.9% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 5% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 1% per year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 13
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15% After last week's 15% share price decline to US$8.67, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Banks industry in the US. Total returns to shareholders of 22% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at US$9.65 per share. Reported Earnings • Jan 29
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$0.80 (vs US$0.53 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: US$0.80 (up from US$0.53 in FY 2021). Revenue: US$55.0m (up 8.4% from FY 2021). Net income: US$10.5m (up 42% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 19% (up from 15% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.2% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 6.5% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 3% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 7% per year. Announcement • Jan 28
BankFinancial Corporation Declares Cash Dividend, Payable on February 24, 2023 BankFinancial Corporation announced that its Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.10 per common share. The dividend will be payable on February 24, 2023 to stockholders of record on February 10, 2023. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 16
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate fell from US$0.95 to US$0.84. Revenue forecast unchanged from US$57.3m at last update. Net income forecast to grow 43% next year vs 14% growth forecast for Banks industry in the US. Consensus price target of US$11.25 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at US$10.05 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 09
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from US$59.7m to US$57.3m. EPS estimate also fell from US$0.95 per share to US$0.82 per share. Net income forecast to grow 43% next year vs 14% growth forecast for Banks industry in the US. Consensus price target of US$11.25 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 2.8% to US$10.08 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 03
Upcoming dividend of US$0.10 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 10 November 2022. Payment date: 25 November 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 56% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 4.1%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (4.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.0%).