Aisin (OTCPK:ASEK.Y) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of ASEK.Y when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

ASEK.Y ($31.4) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($69.55)

ASEK.Y fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	4/6

ASEK.Y Stock Overview

Aisin Corporation manufactures and sells automotive parts, and energy- and lifestyle-related products.

Rewards

Trading at 54.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 9.66% per year

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 3.99% is not well covered by earnings

Profit margins (3%) are lower than last year (5.1%)

Aisin Competitors

Lear

NYSE:LEA

US$9.1b

Autoliv

NYSE:ALV

US$7.4b

Gentex

NasdaqGS:GNTX

US$6.8b

BorgWarner

NYSE:BWA

US$9.5b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Aisin
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	JP¥31.40
52 Week High	JP¥41.19
52 Week Low	JP¥27.99
Beta	0
1 Month Change	5.19%
3 Month Change	5.19%
1 Year Change	-22.26%
3 Year Change	12.38%
5 Year Change	-37.16%
Change since IPO	18.49%

Shareholder Returns

	ASEK.Y	US Auto Components	US Market
7D	4.5%	11.2%	3.2%
1Y	-22.3%	-22.8%	-10.2%

Return vs Industry: ASEK.Y matched the US Auto Components industry which returned -22.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ASEK.Y underperformed the US Market which returned -10.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is ASEK.Y's price volatile compared to industry and market?
ASEK.Y volatility
ASEK.Y Average Weekly Movement	4.9%
Auto Components Industry Average Movement	8.2%
Market Average Movement	7.7%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: ASEK.Y is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ASEK.Y's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1949	117,177	Moritaka Yoshida	https://www.aisin.com

Aisin Corporation manufactures and sells automotive parts, and energy- and lifestyle-related products. It provides powertrain products comprising 1-motor hybrid transmission and eaxle products; chassis and vehicle safety systems, such as automated parking systems and electronically controlled brake systems; power sliding door systems and sunroof products; connected and sharing solutions; and repair and maintenance products. The company also offers energy solutions comprising ENE·FARM, a system that generates electricity by extracting hydrogen from gas; gas heat pump air-conditioners; warm water shower-toilet seats; and peltier modules that are thermoelectric conversion devices, which function as heat pumps by sending direct current.

Aisin Fundamentals Summary

How do Aisin's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
ASEK.Y fundamental statistics
Market Cap	JP¥1.15t
Earnings (TTM)	JP¥117.56b
Revenue (TTM)	JP¥3.94t

9.8x

P/E Ratio

0.3x

P/S Ratio

Is ASEK.Y overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
ASEK.Y income statement (TTM)
Revenue	JP¥3.94t
Cost of Revenue	JP¥3.53t
Gross Profit	JP¥410.28b
Other Expenses	JP¥292.73b
Earnings	JP¥117.56b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	436.18
Gross Margin	10.42%
Net Profit Margin	2.99%
Debt/Equity Ratio	44.7%

How did ASEK.Y perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

4.0%

Current Dividend Yield

39%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is ASEK.Y undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ASEK.Y?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for ASEK.Y. This is calculated by dividing ASEK.Y's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is ASEK.Y's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	JP¥1.15t

ASEK.Y key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	4.8x
PEG Ratio	1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ASEK.Y's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

ASEK.Y PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for ASEK.Y vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	34.7x
LEA Lear	80.4x	33.9%	US$9.1b
ALV Autoliv	22.1x	32.2%	US$7.4b
GNTX Gentex	21.5x	24.6%	US$6.8b
BWA BorgWarner	14.8x	16.4%	US$9.5b
ASEK.Y Aisin	9.8x	9.7%	US$1.1t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ASEK.Y is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the peer average (34.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ASEK.Y's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Auto Components Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ASEK.Y is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the US Auto Components industry average (21.8x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ASEK.Y's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ASEK.Y PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	9.8x
Fair PE Ratio	14.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ASEK.Y is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ASEK.Y when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ASEK.Y ($31.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($69.55)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ASEK.Y is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is Aisin forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 15 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

9.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ASEK.Y's forecast earnings growth (9.7% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: ASEK.Y's earnings (9.7% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (14.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ASEK.Y's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: ASEK.Y's revenue (4.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ASEK.Y's revenue (4.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ASEK.Y's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.3%).

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Past Performance

How has Aisin performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-0.8%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ASEK.Y has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: ASEK.Y's current net profit margins (3%) are lower than last year (5.1%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ASEK.Y's earnings have declined by 0.8% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: ASEK.Y's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: ASEK.Y had negative earnings growth (-41.8%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Auto Components industry average (-6.3%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: ASEK.Y's Return on Equity (6.5%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Aisin's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ASEK.Y's short term assets (¥1,753.1B) exceed its short term liabilities (¥1,097.3B).

Long Term Liabilities: ASEK.Y's short term assets (¥1,753.1B) exceed its long term liabilities (¥1,109.8B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ASEK.Y's net debt to equity ratio (21.3%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: ASEK.Y's debt to equity ratio has increased from 26.7% to 44.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: ASEK.Y's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (19.7%).

Interest Coverage: ASEK.Y earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Aisin current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

3.98%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: ASEK.Y's dividend (3.99%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.47%).

High Dividend: ASEK.Y's dividend (3.99%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.96%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: ASEK.Y's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: ASEK.Y's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (39%), ASEK.Y's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: ASEK.Y is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Moritaka Yoshida (65 yo)

1.17yrs

Tenure

Moritaka Yoshida served as an Auditor of Fujitsu TEN Limited.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: ASEK.Y's management team is considered experienced (4.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: ASEK.Y's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.2 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/13 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/12 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2022/03/31