Is LCI Industries (NYSE:LCII) A Risky Investment?

Published
July 11, 2022
NYSE:LCII
Source: Shutterstock

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, LCI Industries (NYSE:LCII) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

View our latest analysis for LCI Industries

What Is LCI Industries's Net Debt?

As you can see below, at the end of March 2022, LCI Industries had US$1.29b of debt, up from US$793.8m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had US$55.4m in cash, and so its net debt is US$1.23b.

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NYSE:LCII Debt to Equity History July 11th 2022

How Strong Is LCI Industries' Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that LCI Industries had liabilities of US$741.0m due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.64b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$55.4m as well as receivables valued at US$564.7m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$1.76b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

LCI Industries has a market capitalization of US$3.04b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

We'd say that LCI Industries's moderate net debt to EBITDA ratio ( being 1.8), indicates prudence when it comes to debt. And its strong interest cover of 28.6 times, makes us even more comfortable. Pleasingly, LCI Industries is growing its EBIT faster than former Australian PM Bob Hawke downs a yard glass, boasting a 104% gain in the last twelve months. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine LCI Industries's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. In the last three years, LCI Industries's free cash flow amounted to 23% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

Both LCI Industries's ability to to cover its interest expense with its EBIT and its EBIT growth rate gave us comfort that it can handle its debt. Having said that, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow somewhat sensitizes us to potential future risks to the balance sheet. Considering this range of data points, we think LCI Industries is in a good position to manage its debt levels. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 5 warning signs for LCI Industries (3 don't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether LCI Industries is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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