American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.

NYSE:AXL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$741.9m

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Valuation

Is AXL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AXL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AXL ($6.31) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($26.79)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AXL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AXL?

Key metric: As AXL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AXL. This is calculated by dividing AXL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AXL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio26.6x
EarningsUS$27.90m
Market CapUS$741.94m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AXL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AXL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average45.3x
SMP Standard Motor Products
11.7xn/aUS$720.5m
FOXF Fox Factory Holding
124.8x84.1%US$1.3b
THRM Gentherm
19.4x23.9%US$1.3b
XPEL XPEL
25.5x15.4%US$1.2b
AXL American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings
26.6x48.6%US$741.9m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AXL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.6x) compared to the peer average (45.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AXL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Auto Components Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CDTI CDTi Advanced Materials
1.7xn/aUS$1.80m
No more companies available in this PE range
AXL 26.6xIndustry Avg. 19.4xNo. of Companies4PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AXL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.6x) compared to the US Auto Components industry average (19.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AXL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AXL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio26.6x
Fair PE Ratio29.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AXL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AXL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$6.31
US$7.69
+21.8%
19.8%US$10.00US$6.00n/a8
Nov ’25US$5.76
US$7.56
+31.3%
20.2%US$10.00US$6.00n/a8
Oct ’25US$6.08
US$7.81
+28.5%
18.6%US$10.00US$6.00n/a8
Sep ’25US$6.43
US$8.06
+25.3%
15.0%US$10.00US$6.00n/a9
Aug ’25US$7.16
US$8.17
+14.1%
14.1%US$10.00US$6.00n/a9
Jul ’25US$6.91
US$8.06
+16.6%
15.0%US$10.00US$6.00n/a9
Jun ’25US$7.64
US$8.06
+5.4%
15.0%US$10.00US$6.00n/a9
May ’25US$7.39
US$7.89
+6.8%
16.0%US$10.00US$6.00n/a9
Apr ’25US$7.24
US$7.89
+9.0%
16.0%US$10.00US$6.00n/a9
Mar ’25US$6.87
US$7.89
+14.8%
16.0%US$10.00US$6.00n/a9
Feb ’25US$8.23
US$7.94
-3.5%
19.1%US$11.00US$6.00n/a9
Jan ’25US$8.81
US$8.11
-7.9%
17.6%US$11.00US$6.00n/a9
Dec ’24US$7.36
US$8.11
+10.2%
17.6%US$11.00US$6.00n/a9
Nov ’24US$6.38
US$8.61
+35.0%
12.8%US$11.00US$7.50US$5.769
Oct ’24US$7.26
US$9.33
+28.6%
12.4%US$12.00US$8.00US$6.089
Sep ’24US$7.70
US$9.63
+25.0%
15.5%US$12.00US$8.00US$6.438
Aug ’24US$9.52
US$9.63
+1.1%
15.5%US$12.00US$8.00US$7.168
Jul ’24US$8.27
US$9.50
+14.9%
16.6%US$12.00US$8.00US$6.918
Jun ’24US$6.85
US$9.50
+38.7%
16.6%US$12.00US$8.00US$7.648
May ’24US$7.14
US$9.75
+36.6%
14.3%US$12.00US$8.00US$7.398
Apr ’24US$7.81
US$9.88
+26.4%
12.8%US$12.00US$9.00US$7.248
Mar ’24US$9.04
US$10.06
+11.3%
12.3%US$12.00US$9.00US$6.878
Feb ’24US$9.35
US$10.14
+8.5%
15.3%US$13.00US$9.00US$8.237
Jan ’24US$7.82
US$10.29
+31.5%
18.5%US$13.00US$7.00US$8.817
Dec ’23US$10.27
US$10.29
+0.2%
18.5%US$13.00US$7.00US$7.367
Nov ’23US$9.61
US$10.29
+7.0%
20.4%US$13.00US$8.00US$6.387

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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