American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.

NYSE:AXL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$703.1m

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Valuation

Is AXL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AXL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AXL ($5.89) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($26.79)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AXL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AXL?

Key metric: As AXL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AXL. This is calculated by dividing AXL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AXL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio24.8x
EarningsUS$27.90m
Market CapUS$703.13m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AXL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AXL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average41.9x
SMP Standard Motor Products
10.9xn/aUS$686.0m
FOXF Fox Factory Holding
115.2x84.1%US$1.2b
THRM Gentherm
17.7x23.9%US$1.2b
XPEL XPEL
23.8x15.4%US$1.2b
AXL American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings
24.8x48.6%US$703.1m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AXL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.8x) compared to the peer average (41.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AXL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Auto Components Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SEVC.F Sono Group
0.2xn/aUS$7.39m
CDTI CDTi Advanced Materials
1.7xn/aUS$1.80m
No more companies available in this PE range
AXL 24.8xIndustry Avg. 17.9xNo. of Companies3PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AXL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.8x) compared to the US Auto Components industry average (18.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AXL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AXL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio24.8x
Fair PE Ratio29.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AXL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AXL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$5.89
US$7.69
+30.5%
19.8%US$10.00US$6.00n/a8
Dec ’25US$6.61
US$7.69
+16.3%
19.8%US$10.00US$6.00n/a8
Nov ’25US$5.76
US$7.56
+31.3%
20.2%US$10.00US$6.00n/a8
Oct ’25US$6.08
US$7.81
+28.5%
18.6%US$10.00US$6.00n/a8
Sep ’25US$6.43
US$8.06
+25.3%
15.0%US$10.00US$6.00n/a9
Aug ’25US$7.16
US$8.17
+14.1%
14.1%US$10.00US$6.00n/a9
Jul ’25US$6.91
US$8.06
+16.6%
15.0%US$10.00US$6.00n/a9
Jun ’25US$7.64
US$8.06
+5.4%
15.0%US$10.00US$6.00n/a9
May ’25US$7.39
US$7.89
+6.8%
16.0%US$10.00US$6.00n/a9
Apr ’25US$7.24
US$7.89
+9.0%
16.0%US$10.00US$6.00n/a9
Mar ’25US$6.87
US$7.89
+14.8%
16.0%US$10.00US$6.00n/a9
Feb ’25US$8.23
US$7.94
-3.5%
19.1%US$11.00US$6.00n/a9
Jan ’25US$8.81
US$8.11
-7.9%
17.6%US$11.00US$6.00n/a9
Dec ’24US$7.36
US$8.11
+10.2%
17.6%US$11.00US$6.00US$6.619
Nov ’24US$6.38
US$8.61
+35.0%
12.8%US$11.00US$7.50US$5.769
Oct ’24US$7.26
US$9.33
+28.6%
12.4%US$12.00US$8.00US$6.089
Sep ’24US$7.70
US$9.63
+25.0%
15.5%US$12.00US$8.00US$6.438
Aug ’24US$9.52
US$9.63
+1.1%
15.5%US$12.00US$8.00US$7.168
Jul ’24US$8.27
US$9.50
+14.9%
16.6%US$12.00US$8.00US$6.918
Jun ’24US$6.85
US$9.50
+38.7%
16.6%US$12.00US$8.00US$7.648
May ’24US$7.14
US$9.75
+36.6%
14.3%US$12.00US$8.00US$7.398
Apr ’24US$7.81
US$9.88
+26.4%
12.8%US$12.00US$9.00US$7.248
Mar ’24US$9.04
US$10.06
+11.3%
12.3%US$12.00US$9.00US$6.878
Feb ’24US$9.35
US$10.14
+8.5%
15.3%US$13.00US$9.00US$8.237
Jan ’24US$7.82
US$10.29
+31.5%
18.5%US$13.00US$7.00US$8.817
Dec ’23US$10.27
US$10.29
+0.2%
18.5%US$13.00US$7.00US$7.367

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 22:43
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. is covered by 27 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Brian JohnsonBarclays
Dan LevyBarclays
James PicarielloBNP Paribas Exane