Earnings Beat: American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:AXL) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 2.5% to hit US$1.6b. American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings also reported a statutory profit of US$0.15, which was an impressive 53% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings' nine analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$6.23b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 2,310% to US$0.20. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$6.23b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.20 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$8.06, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings analyst has a price target of US$10.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$6.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.7% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 0.1% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 9.6% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings (at least 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.