Is Autoliv (NYSE:ALV) A Risky Investment?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Autoliv, Inc. (NYSE:ALV) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

Check out the opportunities and risks within the US Auto Components industry.

What Is Autoliv's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Autoliv had debt of US$1.62b at the end of June 2022, a reduction from US$2.08b over a year. However, it also had US$327.0m in cash, and so its net debt is US$1.29b.

How Strong Is Autoliv's Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Autoliv had liabilities of US$3.06b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$1.41b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$327.0m as well as receivables valued at US$1.78b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$2.37b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Autoliv has a market capitalization of US$6.24b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Autoliv's net debt of 1.6 times EBITDA suggests graceful use of debt. And the alluring interest cover (EBIT of 8.9 times interest expense) certainly does not do anything to dispel this impression. The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Autoliv if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 51% cut to EBIT over the last year. When a company sees its earnings tank, it can sometimes find its relationships with its lenders turn sour. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Autoliv's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. In the last three years, Autoliv's free cash flow amounted to 48% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.

Our View

Autoliv's EBIT growth rate was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered cast it in a significantly better light. But on the bright side, its ability to to cover its interest expense with its EBIT isn't too shabby at all. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Autoliv is taking some risks with its use of debt. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Autoliv you should know about.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.