Can Mobileye (MBLY) Turn Oslo’s Level 4 Pilot Into a Durable Autonomous Fleet Advantage?

• Ruter and Holo recently announced a partnership with MOIA to deploy Volkswagen’s ID. Buzz AD equipped with Mobileye Drive and the new EyeQ 6H chip in Oslo’s Groruddalen suburb from as early as spring 2026, following two years of snowy-weather testing in the area.
• This marks one of Europe’s first series-production-ready Level 4 autonomous shuttles for shared, on-demand public transport, linking Mobileye’s technology to real-world fleet scale-up plans, including Ruter’s vision for up to 30,000 shared autonomous vehicles around Oslo.
• We’ll now examine how this move into real-world, Level 4 public transport services could influence Mobileye’s longer-term investment narrative.

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Mobileye Global Investment Narrative Recap

To own Mobileye, you need to believe that its assisted and autonomous driving stack can convert design wins into large scale production programs with improving economics, despite current losses and a weak share price. The Oslo Level 4 shuttle plans highlight Mobileye Drive’s move toward real-world, fleet-scale deployments, which supports the long term robotaxi and licensing catalyst, but do not materially change near term execution risks like OEM adoption timing or broader auto demand uncertainty.

The upcoming Mobileye Live event at CES 2026, where the CEO will share the company’s vision alongside Volkswagen Autonomous Mobility, ties directly into this Oslo announcement by showcasing the broader effort to deploy Mobileye Drive at scale with major partners. For investors watching catalysts, this combination of public road programs and high profile product roadmaps may help clarify how Mobileye plans to transition from promising pilots to higher volume, higher margin autonomous services.

Yet behind the promise of Level 4 fleets, slower than expected OEM decision-making remains a risk investors should be aware of...

Read the full narrative on Mobileye Global (it's free!)

Mobileye Global's narrative projects $3.0 billion revenue and $111.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 15.6% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $3.1 billion from -$3.0 billion today.

Uncover how Mobileye Global's forecasts yield a $18.94 fair value, a 88% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$12 to US$29 per share, underlining how far apart individual views can be. Against that backdrop, Mobileye’s reliance on OEMs to adopt advanced products like SuperVision and Chauffeur adds another layer of uncertainty around how quickly any of these expectations might feed into actual business performance, so it is worth considering several of these viewpoints before forming your own.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Mobileye Global - why the stock might be worth just $12.00!

Build Your Own Mobileye Global Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Mobileye Global research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Mobileye Global research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Mobileye Global's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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