Hesai Group (HSAI) Is Up 24.6% After Beating Annual Profit Target and Lidar Shipment Projections

• Earlier this week, China International Capital Corp. (CICC) assigned an “outperform” rating to Hesai Group, emphasizing its automated production capacity and strong profitability as the company reported net income in Q3 2025, reaching its annual profit goal ahead of schedule.
• An interesting insight is that CICC projects Hesai to reach 3 million automotive lidar shipments in China by 2025 and potentially 10 million by 2028, supported by expanding robotics applications and overseas growth.
• To understand how surpassing profitability targets and rapid lidar shipment projections may influence Hesai Group’s outlook, we’ll examine the investment narrative.

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Hesai Group Investment Narrative Recap

To own shares of Hesai Group, an investor needs confidence in the accelerating adoption of lidar across automotive and robotics, as well as Hesai’s ability to convert this momentum into sustained, profitable growth. While the recent “outperform” from CICC and better-than-expected profitability reinforce optimism, the most immediate catalyst continues to be high-volume lidar shipments, just as margin pressures from aggressive pricing remain a significant near-term risk. The news supports sentiment, but doesn’t materially change these key dynamics.

Among the latest company announcements, the selection by Li Auto to supply lidar for all new next-generation platforms is most relevant here, as it directly boosts visibility on future shipment volumes and deepens ties with a core automotive client. This partnership underlines how design wins can be a catalyst for both growth and market validation, which is critical as Hesai aims to scale shipments to meet or exceed targets laid out by CICC.

However, despite this positive momentum, investors should also be mindful that if client concentration becomes an issue...

Read the full narrative on Hesai Group (it's free!)

Hesai Group's narrative projects CN¥7.5 billion revenue and CN¥1.3 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 44.3% yearly revenue growth and a CN¥1.2 billion increase in earnings from the current CN¥103.1 million.

Uncover how Hesai Group's forecasts yield a $29.90 fair value, a 55% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Seventeen members of the Simply Wall St Community estimate Hesai's fair value ranges widely, from US$3.53 to US$55.50 per share. Even with strong recent shipment projections, the business remains exposed to revenue risks if major clients reduce orders, so it pays to explore multiple viewpoints on Hesai’s outlook.

Explore 17 other fair value estimates on Hesai Group - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Hesai Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Hesai Group research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Hesai Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Hesai Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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