We Think China Airlines' (TWSE:2610) Profit Is Only A Baseline For What They Can Achieve

When companies post strong earnings, the stock generally performs well, just like China Airlines, Ltd.'s (TWSE:2610) stock has recently. Our analysis found some more factors that we think are good for shareholders.

See our latest analysis for China Airlines

A Closer Look At China Airlines' Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Over the twelve months to March 2024, China Airlines recorded an accrual ratio of -0.12. That implies it has good cash conversion, and implies that its free cash flow solidly exceeded its profit last year. To wit, it produced free cash flow of NT$22b during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of NT$8.61b. China Airlines' free cash flow actually declined over the last year, which is disappointing, like non-biodegradable balloons.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On China Airlines' Profit Performance

China Airlines' accrual ratio is solid, and indicates strong free cash flow, as we discussed, above. Based on this observation, we consider it likely that China Airlines' statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! And on top of that, its earnings per share have grown at an extremely impressive rate over the last three years. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for China Airlines (1 is significant) you should be familiar with.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of China Airlines' profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.