Unimicron Technology Corp. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

There's been a notable change in appetite for Unimicron Technology Corp. (TWSE:3037) shares in the week since its annual report, with the stock down 10% to NT$118. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of NT$115b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 31% to hit NT$3.31 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Unimicron Technology

After the latest results, the 16 analysts covering Unimicron Technology are now predicting revenues of NT$136.9b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a solid 19% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 110% to NT$6.98. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of NT$148.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of NT$12.14 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a large cut to earnings per share numbers.

The consensus price target fell 22% to NT$164, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Unimicron Technology analyst has a price target of NT$275 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at NT$100.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Unimicron Technology's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 19% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.8% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 15% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Unimicron Technology to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Unimicron Technology going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Unimicron Technology (including 1 which is significant) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.