Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Leadtek Research Inc. (TPE:2465) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
See our latest analysis for Leadtek Research
What Is Leadtek Research's Debt?
As you can see below, Leadtek Research had NT$561.1m of debt at September 2020, down from NT$707.9m a year prior. On the flip side, it has NT$209.7m in cash leading to net debt of about NT$351.4m.
How Healthy Is Leadtek Research's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Leadtek Research had liabilities of NT$1.01b due within 12 months, and liabilities of NT$84.8m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had NT$209.7m in cash and NT$214.7m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total NT$667.5m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Leadtek Research has a market capitalization of NT$1.42b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Weak interest cover of 1.1 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.7 hit our confidence in Leadtek Research like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. Another concern for investors might be that Leadtek Research's EBIT fell 18% in the last year. If things keep going like that, handling the debt will about as easy as bundling an angry house cat into its travel box. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Leadtek Research will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last two years, Leadtek Research actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.
Our View
To be frank both Leadtek Research's net debt to EBITDA and its track record of covering its interest expense with its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that Leadtek Research's debt is making it a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - Leadtek Research has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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About TWSE:2465
Leadtek Research
Develops, manufactures, and sells graphics cards worldwide.
Adequate balance sheet slight.