Phoenix Silicon International Corporation's (TWSE:8028) 28% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Phoenix Silicon International Corporation (TWSE:8028) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 28% share price jump in the last month. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 14% is also fairly reasonable.

After such a large jump in price, Phoenix Silicon International may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 36.9x, since almost half of all companies in Taiwan have P/E ratios under 22x and even P/E's lower than 15x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

For instance, Phoenix Silicon International's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for Phoenix Silicon International

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Phoenix Silicon International, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For Phoenix Silicon International?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Phoenix Silicon International would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 7.3%. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 38% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 25% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

In light of this, it's alarming that Phoenix Silicon International's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Phoenix Silicon International's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of Phoenix Silicon International revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 3 warning signs for Phoenix Silicon International that we have uncovered.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.