Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Powertech Technology Inc. (TPE:6239) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Is Powertech Technology fairly valued?
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
|Levered FCF (NT$, Millions)||NT$8.46b||NT$7.63b||NT$7.14b||NT$6.83b||NT$6.65b||NT$6.54b||NT$6.48b||NT$6.45b||NT$6.45b||NT$6.47b|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x4||Analyst x3||Est @ -6.42%||Est @ -4.24%||Est @ -2.72%||Est @ -1.66%||Est @ -0.91%||Est @ -0.39%||Est @ -0.02%||Est @ 0.23%|
|Present Value (NT$, Millions) Discounted @ 9.7%||NT$7.7k||NT$6.3k||NT$5.4k||NT$4.7k||NT$4.2k||NT$3.7k||NT$3.4k||NT$3.1k||NT$2.8k||NT$2.6k|
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = NT$44b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.7%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = NT$6.5b× (1 + 0.8%) ÷ (9.7%– 0.8%) = NT$73b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= NT$73b÷ ( 1 + 9.7%)10= NT$29b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is NT$73b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of NT$99.0, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Powertech Technology as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.457. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Powertech Technology, we've put together three pertinent factors you should explore:
- Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Powertech Technology you should know about.
- Future Earnings: How does 6239's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSEC every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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