Stock Analysis

Is Thye Ming Industrial (TPE:9927) Using Too Much Debt?

TWSE:9927
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Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Thye Ming Industrial Co., Ltd. (TPE:9927) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Thye Ming Industrial

How Much Debt Does Thye Ming Industrial Carry?

As you can see below, Thye Ming Industrial had NT$640.3m of debt at September 2020, down from NT$729.2m a year prior. But it also has NT$1.26b in cash to offset that, meaning it has NT$619.8m net cash.

debt-equity-history-analysis
TSEC:9927 Debt to Equity History December 18th 2020

How Strong Is Thye Ming Industrial's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Thye Ming Industrial had liabilities of NT$985.1m due within a year, and liabilities of NT$230.1m falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of NT$1.26b as well as receivables valued at NT$1.11b due within 12 months. So it actually has NT$1.16b more liquid assets than total liabilities.

This excess liquidity suggests that Thye Ming Industrial is taking a careful approach to debt. Because it has plenty of assets, it is unlikely to have trouble with its lenders. Simply put, the fact that Thye Ming Industrial has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.

But the bad news is that Thye Ming Industrial has seen its EBIT plunge 18% in the last twelve months. We think hat kind of performance, if repeated frequently, could well lead to difficulties for the stock. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Thye Ming Industrial will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. Thye Ming Industrial may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. During the last three years, Thye Ming Industrial generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 85% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.

Summing up

While we empathize with investors who find debt concerning, you should keep in mind that Thye Ming Industrial has net cash of NT$619.8m, as well as more liquid assets than liabilities. And it impressed us with free cash flow of -NT$398m, being 85% of its EBIT. So is Thye Ming Industrial's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Thye Ming Industrial (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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