Is Pancolour Ink (GTSM:4765) Using Too Much Debt?

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Pancolour Ink Co., Ltd. (GTSM:4765) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Pancolour Ink

What Is Pancolour Ink's Debt?

As you can see below, at the end of December 2020, Pancolour Ink had NT$343.4m of debt, up from NT$303.3m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had NT$188.0m in cash, and so its net debt is NT$155.4m.

How Healthy Is Pancolour Ink's Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Pancolour Ink had liabilities of NT$249.8m falling due within a year, and liabilities of NT$210.0m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of NT$188.0m as well as receivables valued at NT$94.8m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling NT$177.0m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

Of course, Pancolour Ink has a market capitalization of NT$1.08b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Pancolour Ink's net debt to EBITDA ratio of about 1.9 suggests only moderate use of debt. And its commanding EBIT of 18.5 times its interest expense, implies the debt load is as light as a peacock feather. Importantly, Pancolour Ink's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 61% in the last twelve months. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Pancolour Ink will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Pancolour Ink recorded free cash flow worth 77% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

Based on what we've seen Pancolour Ink is not finding it easy, given its EBIT growth rate, but the other factors we considered give us cause to be optimistic. There's no doubt that its ability to to cover its interest expense with its EBIT is pretty flash. Considering this range of data points, we think Pancolour Ink is in a good position to manage its debt levels. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Pancolour Ink .

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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