Are Dividend Investors Making A Mistake With ALFORMER Industrial Co., Ltd. (GTSM:4558)?

Is ALFORMER Industrial Co., Ltd. (GTSM:4558) a good dividend stock? How can we tell? Dividend paying companies with growing earnings can be highly rewarding in the long term. Yet sometimes, investors buy a stock for its dividend and lose money because the share price falls by more than they earned in dividend payments.

With a 2.4% yield and a six-year payment history, investors probably think ALFORMER Industrial looks like a reliable dividend stock. A low yield is generally a turn-off, but if the prospects for earnings growth were strong, investors might be pleasantly surprised by the long-term results. Before you buy any stock for its dividend however, you should always remember Warren Buffett's two rules: 1) Don't lose money, and 2) Remember rule #1. We'll run through some checks below to help with this.

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Payout ratios

Dividends are usually paid out of company earnings. If a company is paying more than it earns, then the dividend might become unsustainable - hardly an ideal situation. So we need to form a view on if a company's dividend is sustainable, relative to its net profit after tax. In the last year, ALFORMER Industrial paid out 175% of its profit as dividends. A payout ratio above 100% is definitely an item of concern, unless there are some other circumstances that would justify it.

In addition to comparing dividends against profits, we should inspect whether the company generated enough cash to pay its dividend. The company paid out 59% of its free cash flow, which is not bad per se, but does start to limit the amount of cash ALFORMER Industrial has available to meet other needs. It's good to see that while ALFORMER Industrial's dividends were not covered by profits, at least they are affordable from a cash perspective. If executives were to continue paying more in dividends than the company reported in profits, we'd view this as a warning sign. Extraordinarily few companies are capable of persistently paying a dividend that is greater than their profits.

We update our data on ALFORMER Industrial every 24 hours, so you can always get our latest analysis of its financial health, here.

Dividend Volatility

Before buying a stock for its income, we want to see if the dividends have been stable in the past, and if the company has a track record of maintaining its dividend. ALFORMER Industrial has been paying a dividend for the past six years. Although it has been paying a dividend for several years now, the dividend has been cut at least once, and we're cautious about the consistency of its dividend across a full economic cycle. During the past six-year period, the first annual payment was NT$0.5 in 2015, compared to NT$0.5 last year. Its dividends have grown at less than 1% per annum over this time frame.

We're glad to see the dividend has risen, but with a limited rate of growth and fluctuations in the payments, we don't think this is an attractive combination.

Dividend Growth Potential

Given that the dividend has been cut in the past, we need to check if earnings are growing and if that might lead to stronger dividends in the future. ALFORMER Industrial's EPS have fallen by approximately 11% per year during the past five years. With this kind of significant decline, we always wonder what has changed in the business. Dividends are about stability, and ALFORMER Industrial's earnings per share, which support the dividend, have been anything but stable.

Conclusion

To summarise, shareholders should always check that ALFORMER Industrial's dividends are affordable, that its dividend payments are relatively stable, and that it has decent prospects for growing its earnings and dividend. We're not keen on the fact that ALFORMER Industrial paid out such a high percentage of its income, although its cashflow is in better shape. Earnings per share are down, and ALFORMER Industrial's dividend has been cut at least once in the past, which is disappointing. Using these criteria, ALFORMER Industrial looks quite suboptimal from a dividend investment perspective.

Investors generally tend to favour companies with a consistent, stable dividend policy as opposed to those operating an irregular one. At the same time, there are other factors our readers should be conscious of before pouring capital into a stock. To that end, ALFORMER Industrial has 5 warning signs (and 2 which are concerning) we think you should know about.

We have also put together a list of global stocks with a market capitalisation above $1bn and yielding more 3%.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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