There's Reason For Concern Over AmTRAN Technology Co.,Ltd's (TWSE:2489) Massive 27% Price Jump

AmTRAN Technology Co.,Ltd (TWSE:2489) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 27% gain in the last month alone. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 76% in the last year.

Since its price has surged higher, AmTRAN TechnologyLtd may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 39.6x, since almost half of all companies in Taiwan have P/E ratios under 23x and even P/E's lower than 16x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at AmTRAN TechnologyLtd over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for AmTRAN TechnologyLtd

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on AmTRAN TechnologyLtd's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For AmTRAN TechnologyLtd?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as AmTRAN TechnologyLtd's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 39%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 91% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 24% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that AmTRAN TechnologyLtd is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Shares in AmTRAN TechnologyLtd have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that AmTRAN TechnologyLtd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for AmTRAN TechnologyLtd (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com