AG Anadolu Grubu Holding (IBSE:AGHOL) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of AGHOL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

AGHOL (TRY79.9) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (TRY64.79)

AGHOL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	0/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	2/6

AGHOL Stock Overview

AG Anadolu Grubu Holding A.S., through its subsidiaries, engages in the beer, soft drinks, automotive, retailing, and other businesses in Turkey and internationally.

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 41.27% per year

Risk Analysis

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Profit margins (0.6%) are lower than last year (1.3%)

AG Anadolu Grubu Holding Competitors

Alarko Holding

IBSE:ALARK

₺16.9b

Türkiye Sise Ve Cam Fabrikalari

IBSE:SISE

₺71.7b

Bera Holding

IBSE:BERA

₺5.2b

Koç Holding

IBSE:KCHOL

₺100.1b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for AG Anadolu Grubu Holding
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	₺79.90
52 Week High	₺81.70
52 Week Low	₺21.78
Beta	1.17
1 Month Change	48.24%
3 Month Change	94.97%
1 Year Change	246.79%
3 Year Change	515.09%
5 Year Change	251.36%
Change since IPO	3,092.81%

Shareholder Returns

	AGHOL	TR Industrials	TR Market
7D	15.2%	4.7%	4.7%
1Y	246.8%	123.9%	71.6%

Return vs Industry: AGHOL exceeded the TR Industrials industry which returned 123.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AGHOL exceeded the TR Market which returned 71.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is AGHOL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
AGHOL volatility
AGHOL Average Weekly Movement	7.5%
Industrials Industry Average Movement	6.8%
Market Average Movement	5.9%
10% most volatile stocks in TR Market	8.8%
10% least volatile stocks in TR Market	4.2%

Stable Share Price: AGHOL is more volatile than 75% of TR stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: AGHOL's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of TR stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1950	66,214	Hursit Zorlu	https://www.anadolugrubu.com.tr

AG Anadolu Grubu Holding A.S., through its subsidiaries, engages in the beer, soft drinks, automotive, retailing, and other businesses in Turkey and internationally. The company produces and sells beer and malt, and carbonated and non-carbonated beverages, as well as passenger and commercial vehicles; imports, distributes, markets, and rents motor vehicles; and offers generators, and spares and component parts. It is also involved in the production of industrial engines; sale of tractors; production of writing instruments; distribution of other imported stationery products; arrangement of travelling and organization facilities; and provision of IT, internet, and e-commerce services.

AG Anadolu Grubu Holding Fundamentals Summary

How do AG Anadolu Grubu Holding's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
AGHOL fundamental statistics
Market Cap	₺19.46b
Earnings (TTM)	₺529.02m
Revenue (TTM)	₺95.61b

36.8x

P/E Ratio

0.2x

P/S Ratio

Is AGHOL overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
AGHOL income statement (TTM)
Revenue	₺95.61b
Cost of Revenue	₺67.27b
Gross Profit	₺28.33b
Other Expenses	₺27.80b
Earnings	₺529.02m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.17
Gross Margin	29.63%
Net Profit Margin	0.55%
Debt/Equity Ratio	101.8%

How did AGHOL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.3%

Current Dividend Yield

11%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is AGHOL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AGHOL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for AGHOL. This is calculated by dividing AGHOL's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is AGHOL's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	₺19.46b

AGHOL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	6.5x
PEG Ratio	0.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AGHOL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

AGHOL PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for AGHOL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	5.7x
ALARK Alarko Holding	7.5x	n/a	₺16.9b
SISE Türkiye Sise Ve Cam Fabrikalari	4.7x	-2.4%	₺71.7b
BERA Bera Holding	5.7x	n/a	₺5.2b
KCHOL Koç Holding	5.1x	18.7%	₺100.1b
AGHOL AG Anadolu Grubu Holding	36.8x	41.3%	₺19.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AGHOL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.8x) compared to the peer average (5.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AGHOL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Industrials Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AGHOL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.8x) compared to the TR Industrials industry average (6.6x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AGHOL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AGHOL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	36.8x
Fair PE Ratio	14.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AGHOL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AGHOL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AGHOL (TRY79.9) is trading above our estimate of fair value (TRY64.79)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AGHOL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

Discover undervalued companies

Future Growth

How is AG Anadolu Grubu Holding forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

41.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AGHOL's forecast earnings growth (41.3% per year) is above the savings rate (8.9%).

Earnings vs Market: AGHOL's earnings (41.3% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the TR market (14.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AGHOL's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: AGHOL's revenue (19.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the TR market (14.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AGHOL's revenue (19.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if AGHOL's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has AG Anadolu Grubu Holding performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

51.6%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AGHOL has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: AGHOL's current net profit margins (0.6%) are lower than last year (1.3%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AGHOL has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 51.6% per year.

Accelerating Growth: AGHOL's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: AGHOL had negative earnings growth (-38.1%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Industrials industry average (160.5%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: AGHOL's Return on Equity (5.7%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is AG Anadolu Grubu Holding's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AGHOL's short term assets (TRY52.9B) do not cover its short term liabilities (TRY52.9B).

Long Term Liabilities: AGHOL's short term assets (TRY52.9B) exceed its long term liabilities (TRY35.2B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AGHOL's net debt to equity ratio (44.3%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: AGHOL's debt to equity ratio has increased from 80.3% to 101.8% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: AGHOL's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (34%).

Interest Coverage: AGHOL's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (2.4x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Discover healthy companies

Dividend

What is AG Anadolu Grubu Holding current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

0.31%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: AGHOL's dividend (0.31%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the TR market (0.67%).

High Dividend: AGHOL's dividend (0.31%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the TR market (3.33%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Too early to tell whether AGHOL's dividend payments have been stable as they only just started paying a dividend.

Growing Dividend: Too early to tell if AGHOL's dividend payments are increasing as they only just started paying a dividend.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (11.3%), AGHOL's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (0.7%), AGHOL's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.6yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Hursit Zorlu (63 yo)

5.5yrs

Tenure

Mr. Hursit Zorlu serves as the Chief Executive Officer of AG Anadolu Grubu Holding A.S., since February 2017. He joined Anadolu Group in 1984, he held various positions in Toz Metal and Turkish Airlines. H...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: AGHOL's management team is considered experienced (4.6 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: AGHOL's board of directors are considered experienced (4.7 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/07 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/05 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31