AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand) (SET:AEONTS) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of AEONTS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

AEONTS (THB170) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (THB254.6)

AEONTS fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	6/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	3/6

AEONTS Stock Overview

AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand) Public Company Limited provides various retail finance services in Thailand.

Rewards

Trading at 33.2% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 12.88% per year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Dividend of 3.03% is not well covered by earnings

AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand) Competitors

Ngern Tid Lor

SET:TIDLOR

฿72.4b

Ratchthani Leasing

SET:THANI

฿22.8b

Srisawad Corporation

SET:SAWAD

฿66.6b

Saksiam Leasing

SET:SAK

฿15.6b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand)
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	฿170.00
52 Week High	฿209.00
52 Week Low	฿168.00
Beta	1.07
1 Month Change	-11.00%
3 Month Change	-12.60%
1 Year Change	-9.57%
3 Year Change	-25.76%
5 Year Change	60.38%
Change since IPO	1,238.58%

Shareholder Returns

	AEONTS	TH Consumer Finance	TH Market
7D	-1.2%	-1.8%	0.2%
1Y	-9.6%	-12.8%	1.0%

Return vs Industry: AEONTS exceeded the TH Consumer Finance industry which returned -12.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AEONTS underperformed the TH Market which returned 1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is AEONTS's price volatile compared to industry and market?
AEONTS volatility
AEONTS Average Weekly Movement	2.4%
Consumer Finance Industry Average Movement	4.8%
Market Average Movement	5.1%
10% most volatile stocks in TH Market	10.7%
10% least volatile stocks in TH Market	2.6%

Stable Share Price: AEONTS is less volatile than 75% of TH stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 2% a week.

Volatility Over Time: AEONTS's weekly volatility (2%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1992	4,219	Tsutomu Omodera	https://www.aeon.co.th

AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand) Public Company Limited provides various retail finance services in Thailand. The company operates through Retail Finance Services and Other Business segments. It offers credit card, hire purchase, personal loans, and other services.

AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand) Fundamentals Summary

How do AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand)'s earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
AEONTS fundamental statistics
Market Cap	฿42.50b
Earnings (TTM)	฿3.55b
Revenue (TTM)	฿12.16b

12.0x

P/E Ratio

3.5x

P/S Ratio

Is AEONTS overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
AEONTS income statement (TTM)
Revenue	฿12.16b
Cost of Revenue	฿6.35b
Gross Profit	฿5.81b
Other Expenses	฿2.26b
Earnings	฿3.55b

Last Reported Earnings

Feb 28, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	14.21
Gross Margin	47.80%
Net Profit Margin	29.21%
Debt/Equity Ratio	327.5%

How did AEONTS perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

3.0%

Current Dividend Yield

36%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is AEONTS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AEONTS?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for AEONTS. This is calculated by dividing AEONTS's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is AEONTS's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	฿42.50b

AEONTS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	0.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AEONTS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

AEONTS PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for AEONTS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	18.5x
TIDLOR Ngern Tid Lor	21.8x	21.6%	฿72.4b
THANI Ratchthani Leasing	13.1x	12.8%	฿22.8b
SAWAD Srisawad Corporation	15.1x	15.3%	฿66.6b
SAK Saksiam Leasing	23.9x	26.9%	฿15.6b
AEONTS AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand)	12x	12.9%	฿42.5b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AEONTS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the peer average (18.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AEONTS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Consumer Finance Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AEONTS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the TH Consumer Finance industry average (15.1x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AEONTS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AEONTS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	12x
Fair PE Ratio	22.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AEONTS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.1x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AEONTS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AEONTS (THB170) is trading below our estimate of fair value (THB254.6)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AEONTS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: AEONTS is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.9x)

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Future Growth

How is AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand) forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

12.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AEONTS's forecast earnings growth (12.9% per year) is above the savings rate (2%).

Earnings vs Market: AEONTS's earnings (12.9% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the TH market (18.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AEONTS's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: AEONTS's revenue (19.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the TH market (10.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AEONTS's revenue (19.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AEONTS's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (18.7%).

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Past Performance

How has AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand) performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

7.8%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AEONTS has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: AEONTS's current net profit margins (29.2%) are lower than last year (29.5%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AEONTS's earnings have grown by 7.8% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: AEONTS's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: AEONTS had negative earnings growth (-3.7%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Consumer Finance industry average (12.5%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: AEONTS's Return on Equity (17.6%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand)'s financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AEONTS's short term assets (THB85.0B) exceed its short term liabilities (THB33.7B).

Long Term Liabilities: AEONTS's short term assets (THB85.0B) exceed its long term liabilities (THB36.5B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AEONTS's net debt to equity ratio (306.2%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: AEONTS's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 409.8% to 327.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: AEONTS's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (1.1%).

Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if AEONTS's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand) current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

3.03%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: AEONTS's dividend (3.03%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the TH market (1.79%).

High Dividend: AEONTS's dividend (3.03%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the TH market (5.4%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: AEONTS's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: AEONTS's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (36.2%), AEONTS's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (480.9%), AEONTS's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

6.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Tsutomu Omodera (58 yo)

2.08yrs

Tenure

Mr. Tsutomu Omodera serves as Managing Director and Vice Chairman of AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand) Public Company Limited since June 24, 2020. He is an Authorized Director of AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand) Pu...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: AEONTS's management team is seasoned and experienced (6.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: AEONTS's board of directors are considered experienced (3.6 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/03 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/01 00:00
Earnings	2022/02/28
Annual Earnings	2022/02/28