CP Axtra Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of CPAXT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

CPAXT (THB34.75) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (THB21.89)

Is CPAXT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CPAXT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CPAXT (THB34.75) is trading above our estimate of fair value (THB21.89)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CPAXT is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CPAXT?

Key metric: As CPAXT is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CPAXT. This is calculated by dividing CPAXT's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CPAXT's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	36.6x
Earnings	฿9.89b
Market Cap	฿362.36b

CPAXT key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	16.9x
PEG Ratio	2.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CPAXT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CPAXT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	17.3x
CPALL CP ALL	24.5x	10.9%	฿568.2b
PM Premier Marketing	8.8x	n/a	฿5.3b
BJC Berli Jucker	22.8x	17.5%	฿91.0b
WINNER Winner Group Enterprise	13.1x	n/a	฿1.2b
CPAXT CP Axtra	36.6x	15.5%	฿362.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CPAXT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.6x) compared to the peer average (17.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CPAXT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Consumer Retailing Industry?

6 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

6 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CPAXT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.6x) compared to the Asian Consumer Retailing industry average (16.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CPAXT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CPAXT PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	36.6x
Fair PE Ratio	35x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CPAXT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CPAXT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	฿34.75	฿37.11 +6.8%	9.3%	฿42.00	฿27.40	n/a	14
Nov ’25	฿34.75	฿36.88 +6.1%	10.0%	฿42.00	฿27.40	n/a	14
Oct ’25	n/a	฿35.91 0%	9.7%	฿40.50	฿26.00	n/a	14
Sep ’25	฿31.00	฿35.25 +13.7%	10.3%	฿40.50	฿26.00	n/a	14
Aug ’25	฿30.75	฿34.79 +13.1%	10.6%	฿40.50	฿26.00	n/a	12
Jul ’25	฿27.00	฿34.95 +29.4%	10.9%	฿40.50	฿26.00	n/a	10
Jun ’25	฿28.75	฿34.95 +21.6%	10.9%	฿40.50	฿26.00	n/a	10

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.