Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Petrol d.d. (LJSE:PETG) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Petrol d.d
How Much Debt Does Petrol d.d Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Petrol d.d had debt of €307.3m at the end of September 2020, a reduction from €369.4m over a year. However, because it has a cash reserve of €67.8m, its net debt is less, at about €239.5m.
How Healthy Is Petrol d.d's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Petrol d.d had liabilities of €498.6m falling due within a year, and liabilities of €399.4m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of €67.8m and €336.9m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling €493.4m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of €670.1m, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Petrol d.d's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Petrol d.d's net debt to EBITDA ratio of about 1.5 suggests only moderate use of debt. And its strong interest cover of 20.3 times, makes us even more comfortable. The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Petrol d.d if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 38% cut to EBIT over the last year. When it comes to paying off debt, falling earnings are no more useful than sugary sodas are for your health. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Petrol d.d's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Petrol d.d produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 56% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
Petrol d.d's EBIT growth rate and level of total liabilities definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But the good news is it seems to be able to cover its interest expense with its EBIT with ease. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Petrol d.d's debt poses some risks to the business. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. Another positive for shareholders is that it pays dividends. So if you like receiving those dividend payments, check Petrol d.d's dividend history, without delay!
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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About LJSE:PETG
Petrol d.d
Through its subsidiaries, sells petroleum and other energy products in Slovenia and internationally.
Flawless balance sheet with solid track record and pays a dividend.