Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Ho Bee Land Limited (SGX:H13) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
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How Much Debt Does Ho Bee Land Carry?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Ho Bee Land had S$2.43b in debt in December 2020; about the same as the year before. However, it also had S$118.7m in cash, and so its net debt is S$2.31b.
A Look At Ho Bee Land's Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Ho Bee Land had liabilities of S$594.0m falling due within a year, and liabilities of S$2.09b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of S$118.7m as well as receivables valued at S$54.4m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by S$2.51b.
This deficit casts a shadow over the S$1.57b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Ho Bee Land would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
With a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 13.1, it's fair to say Ho Bee Land does have a significant amount of debt. But the good news is that it boasts fairly comforting interest cover of 4.1 times, suggesting it can responsibly service its obligations. Notably, Ho Bee Land's EBIT was pretty flat over the last year, which isn't ideal given the debt load. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Ho Bee Land's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Ho Bee Land recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 93% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.
Our View
To be frank both Ho Bee Land's level of total liabilities and its track record of managing its debt, based on its EBITDA, make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, we think it's fair to say that Ho Bee Land has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If all goes well, that should boost returns, but on the flip side, the risk of permanent capital loss is elevated by the debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Ho Bee Land (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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About SGX:H13
Slightly overvalued very low.