BHG Retail REIT (SGX:BMGU) - Share price, News & Analysis

BMGU fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	3/6

BMGU Stock Overview

BHG Retail REIT is the first pure-play China Retail REIT sponsored by a leading China integrated retail group.

Rewards

Trading at 64.4% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 32.27% per year

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

BHG Retail REIT Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for BHG Retail REIT
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	S$0.53
52 Week High	S$0.63
52 Week Low	S$0.44
Beta	0.64
1 Month Change	-0.94%
3 Month Change	n/a
1 Year Change	-3.64%
3 Year Change	-24.29%
5 Year Change	-28.38%
Change since IPO	-33.75%

Shareholder Returns

	BMGU	SG REITs	SG Market
7D	1.9%	1.1%	0.2%
1Y	-3.6%	-4.7%	-3.4%

Return vs Industry: BMGU exceeded the SG REITs industry which returned -4.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BMGU matched the SG Market which returned -3.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BMGU's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BMGU volatility
BMGU Average Weekly Movement	9.8%
REITs Industry Average Movement	2.8%
Market Average Movement	4.8%
10% most volatile stocks in SG Market	11.1%
10% least volatile stocks in SG Market	2.2%

Stable Share Price: BMGU is more volatile than 75% of SG stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 10% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BMGU's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of SG stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
n/a	n/a	Iz-Lynn Chan	https://www.bhgreit.com

BHG Retail REIT is the first pure-play China Retail REIT sponsored by a leading China integrated retail group. The REIT was listed on the Main Board of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited on 11 December 2015. The principal investment strategy of BHG Retail REIT is to invest, directly or indirectly, in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate which is used primarily for retail purposes (whether either wholly or partially), as well as real estate-related assets in relation to the foregoing, with an initial focus on China.

BHG Retail REIT Fundamentals Summary

How do BHG Retail REIT's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BMGU fundamental statistics
Market Cap	S$271.99m
Earnings (TTM)	S$7.51m
Revenue (TTM)	S$70.64m

36.2x

P/E Ratio

3.9x

P/S Ratio

Is BMGU overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BMGU income statement (TTM)
Revenue	S$70.64m
Cost of Revenue	S$28.09m
Gross Profit	S$42.55m
Other Expenses	S$35.04m
Earnings	S$7.51m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.015
Gross Margin	60.23%
Net Profit Margin	10.63%
Debt/Equity Ratio	45.1%

How did BMGU perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

4.1%

Current Dividend Yield

34%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is BMGU undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BMGU?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for BMGU. This is calculated by dividing BMGU's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is BMGU's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	S$271.99m

BMGU key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	10x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	18.3x
PEG Ratio	1.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BMGU's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

BMGU PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for BMGU vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	21x

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BMGU is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.2x) compared to the peer average (21x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BMGU's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Singaporean REITs Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BMGU is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.2x) compared to the SG REITs industry average (14.1x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BMGU's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BMGU PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	36.2x
Fair PE Ratio	15x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BMGU is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BMGU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BMGU (SGD0.53) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SGD1.49)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BMGU is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: BMGU is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.1x)

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Future Growth

How is BHG Retail REIT forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

32.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BMGU's forecast earnings growth (32.3% per year) is above the savings rate (1.8%).

Earnings vs Market: BMGU's earnings (32.3% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the SG market (12.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BMGU's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: BMGU's revenue (6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the SG market (7.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BMGU's revenue (6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BMGU's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (3.1%).

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Past Performance

How has BHG Retail REIT performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-31.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BMGU has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: BMGU became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BMGU's earnings have declined by 31.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: BMGU has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: BMGU has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the REITs industry (87.6%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: BMGU's Return on Equity (2.3%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is BHG Retail REIT's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: BMGU's short term assets (SGD51.2M) do not cover its short term liabilities (SGD339.9M).

Long Term Liabilities: BMGU's short term assets (SGD51.2M) exceed its long term liabilities (SGD47.9M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: BMGU's net debt to equity ratio (37.8%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: BMGU's debt to equity ratio has increased from 39.7% to 45.1% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: BMGU's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (10.9%).

Interest Coverage: BMGU's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (2.7x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is BHG Retail REIT current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

4.09%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: BMGU's dividend (4.09%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the SG market (2.34%).

High Dividend: BMGU's dividend (4.09%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the SG market (6.16%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: BMGU has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: BMGU has only been paying a dividend for 6 years, and since then payments have fallen.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (33.7%), BMGU's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (34.5%), BMGU's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

6.6yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Iz-Lynn Chan

no data

Tenure

Ms. Iz-Lynn Chan serves as Chief Executive Officer and Head of Investor Relations - BHG Retail Trust Management Pte Ltd at BHG Retail REIT. Ms. Chan has 20 years' experience in the real estate and service...

Board Members

Experienced Board: BMGU's board of directors are considered experienced (6.6 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/26 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31