Intraco Limited's (SGX:I06) 26% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Intraco Limited (SGX:I06) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 26% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 62% in the last year.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Intraco's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Singapore's Trade Distributors industry is similar at about 0.4x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

Check out our latest analysis for Intraco

How Intraco Has Been Performing

The recent revenue growth at Intraco would have to be considered satisfactory if not spectacular. It might be that many expect the respectable revenue performance to only match most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Intraco will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Intraco's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 4.5% gain to the company's revenues. Still, lamentably revenue has fallen 7.2% in aggregate from three years ago, which is disappointing. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 6.1% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Intraco's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Intraco's P/S?

Intraco appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We find it unexpected that Intraco trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Intraco (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Intraco, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.